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Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend 

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government 

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Mixed global set-up

·         Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin

·         Yields: 30Y Bond +.46%%  Currencies:  USA$-1% CAD +0.31% YEN+1.4%  BTC/USD -0.5%  Vix: 31

·         Stocks: KMX-7% STZ-2.3%  EPS
News:  USA: CPI below expectations 2.4% y.y. -0.1% m/m

·         Overview: USA indices pulling back after a surge Wed fueled by short covering and negative gamma. Tenth largest move since 1926 with larger moves occurring during great depression and 2008! SPY 532 is below the bottom of the daily expected move which can lead to larger moves lower. Support 525 put wall, resistance 540, 545. QQQ 454 support 450 440 resistance 460 465.   Wed squeeze was caused by a pause in tariff imposition for 90d except China, the largest economy. Premarket the MAG7 are pulling back led by AAPL, NVDA and TSLA as effectively the China trade war is unresolved. A positive is that Wed morning the bond market was looking unstable and the combo of the market pop Wed and a good 10y auction has stabilized the market; however Bond volatility measured by MOVE is lower but still elevated. Equity Vix futures are lower post the squeeze however still inverted and ergo still signaling short term risk-off. US$ is  lower versus foreign currencies and providing a boost to gold and many commodities ex-oil which has pulled back after popping with Wed short squeeze.  Market is still fragile and moving on tariff news which seem to be transmitted via tweets. With SPY at bottom of daily expected move one can use 530 as a bull/bear and QQQ 450. Sectors which are positive premarket are gold and gold miners and China stocks but generally a negative set-up so one must take care with longs today. IMO nothing has really changed and China tariffs would be crippling to many companies with AAPL the poster child. Since this is obvious to all, shorts are active, hence wide swings with short squeezes are to be expected. Take care!
 
Daily Expected Move SPX(5595-5319), SPY(562-535), QQQ(480-452), IWM(195-184)

Stocks to watch GLD, BABA, AAPL, PLTR, NVDA, TSLA, Speculative HMY, GFI, JD,
Pre-800ET
Indices KWEB, GLD, FXI, SLV, SMH, USO, ARKK, ETHE, XLK, SPY, XBI, QQQ, XLY, XLE, KRE, EFA

S&P500  AAPL, PLTR, NVDA, SMCI, TSLA, AMD, INTC, AMZN

Trade Idea: AAPL

AAPL was lifted with the short squeeze Wed which had zero to do with the issues AAPL will be dealing with if the China tariffs are applied. AAPL is at 190 which is a key level with calls above and puts below so a perfect bull/bear level. Below 190 there is some support at 185 below one can target 180 and 170 which are larger put levels. Above 190 the targets are 195 and 200 with the largest call position at 215.