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Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend 

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government 

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Mixed global set-up

·       Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin

·       Yields: 30Y Bond +.05% Currencies: USA$-1% CAD +0.54% YEN+1.3%  BTC/USD +3.5%  Vix: 36

·       Stocks: JPM+1.6% MS+2% FAST BK BLK  EPS
News:  USA: PPI 830ET; Consumer Sentiment 10ET

·       Overview: USA indices are mildly positive led by large caps but Europe and Japan are weak.  Macro concerns are the US$ which is -1% and approaching 2023 lows and 10Y yield which at 4.4% has risen 10% in 5 days. Vix futures and bond volatility remain very elevated which leads to funds delivering. Vix futures remain inverted which is an indication of risk. PPI will be released at 830ET and consumer inflation expectations at 10ET may be market moving. Reaction to bank earnings premarket is generally positive. MAG7 are mixed with NVDA leading to the upside but no major beta adjusted moves. Gold and gold miners are continuing to perform well (GFI HMY KGC) and China stocks are trading higher. Both are beneficiaries of a lower US$. SPX5300 is a pivot level to watch with 0DTE positions at 5350 and 5400 which can act as resistance.  Below 5300 there is little 0DTE support at the moment until 5000. PPI premarket and consumer confidence at 10ET can move markets and potential that the banks which reported can make a move once the market opens.  Combination of a coiled market and high volatility can lead to a large move in either direction so keep your head on a swivel.

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·       Daily Expected Move SPX(5595-5319) SPY(562-535) QQQ(480-452) IWM(195-184)

Stocks to watch IBIT, JPM, MS, NVDA, GLD, TXN, IWM Speculative HMY, GFI, JD
Pre-800ET
Indices IBIT, ETHE, FXI, GDX, KWEB, ARKG, GLD, SLV, UNG, UUP, USO, IWM, KRE

S&P500  JPM, NEM, TXN

Other XPEV, AU, BILI, GFI, NVO, HMY, LI, JD, KGC, TSM, MARA, GME, TXN

Trade Idea: KGC

Gold miners have been outperforming the S&P500 for several months and the smaller names like KGC HMY GFI are outperforming the large names like GOLD and NEM. Flagging KGC as a strong name but caveat that is extended. Momentum traders can chase or one can look for a pullback > 13 for a long entry. The 14 and 16 are the largest call positions above price hence above 14 can move to 16. Clearly gold has been on a rocket ship and benefiting from a very weak US$ and there is a risk of a US$ reversal which could be negative for gold and miners.