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Date:Apr 14, 2025

Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend 

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government 

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Positive global set-up

·       Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin

·       Yields: 30Y Bond +.36%  Currencies:  USA$-0.7% CAD +0.27% YEN+0.5%  BTC/USD +1.2%  Vix: 31

·       Stocks: GS+.8%  EPS
News: USA: Exemption for cellphones and computers from the +100% China tariff but still have 20% tariff. Trump is announcing semi tariff rates next week. IMO they have found out that the tariffs they have set on China will destroy the tech sector. Reaction is to pile into AAPL, DELL, HPE, NVDA China: Stopping export of rare earth metals to the USA and also now claiming USA meat has salmonella. Tariff game continues

·       Overview:  Global indices are higher premarket with US$ continuing to crash and Europe outperforming USA equity. 10Y yield which has been threatening to break above 4.5% is down slightly but remains elevated. Pavlovian response by the WH to whenever the 10Y is about to breakout is to make another tariff exemption. Fri the narrative was that cellphones and computers would be exempted and on the weekend it was said that the 20% tariff would still apply. WH is also going to announce a tariff structure for semis next week. Reaction is to buy AAPL DELL HPE and other semis and squeeze the shorts despite a lack of clarity of what will actually be applied. Mag7 are all higher led by AAPL and NVDA. With no economic data and tariff confusion and low liquidity its a perfect playground for algos and 0DTE traders that have no concerns about fundamentals.  The top names are computer suppliers, semis and any name associated with data centers (ANET VST SMCI). These have been in distribution prior to tariffs and are crowded trades that are unwinding. Today there are bounces that can continue but caution is IMO bounces will likely be sold so need to be careful. Overall the market is still risky with Vix high and inverted; US$ is crashing and 10y yields are trending higher. Not a market to be complacent in.

·       SPY 541.67 Resistance  545 548 550 Support 540 537.8 535 530 525 520  QQQ 462.25 Resistance 464 465 467 Support 460 455 450

·       Daily Expected Move SPX(5503-5223) SPY(548-520) QQQ(467-441) IWM(190-178)

Stocks to watch AAPL, NVDA, BBUY, DELL, PLTR Speculative MP
Pre-800ET
Indices ETHE, XLK, SMH, ARKK, KWEB, QQQ, XLE, ARKG, USO, QTUM, IBIT, IGV, IWM, $dxy, UNG, GLD

S&P500  DELL, AAPL, MU, SMCI, AMD, HPE, PLTR, NVDA, INTC, OXY, CCL, NCLH, AVGO, TSLA, NKE, GS, BAC, PYPL, GOOG, META, CMSA

Other BBUY, DELL, MU, AAPL, PLTR, SMCI, HPE, ANET, VST, FCX, QCOM, BA, LRCX 

Trade Idea: AAPL

AAPL large bounce Fri and premarket today on reduction of tariff to 20% but IMO the market is expecting a total exemption. AAPL has been a laggard due to lack of growth and diminishing China sales but the threat of tariffs has likely spurred some sales. AAPL is at 210 which is the level with the highest option open interest. Above 210 215 and 220 are upside targets and below targets are 205 and 200. AAPL has been distributed so once the short cover is done, be on the look out for a resumption in the selling.