.

Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend 

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government 

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong, Asia – Neutral global set-up

·       Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin

·       Yields: 30Y Bond -0.4% Currencies: USA$+0.1%, CAD -0.1%, YEN-.06%, BTC/USD +0.7%, Vix: 30.5

·       Stocks: JNJ-0.9%, BAC+1.7%, ACI-5.2% EPS BA -3.5% China halting deliveries RKLB+2.9% Hypersonic contract NFLX+2% upgrade ahead of earnings
News: USA: Tariff plan on semis and pharma coming; Empire State mfg 830ET
Overview: USA indices are flat premarket absent new tariff tape bombs. Europe is leading with improving industrial production numbers. Bonds remain a focus and 30y bond is higher premarket. US$ is up slightly after 2 days of large drops but precious metals are continuing to move higher. MAG7 are muted ex-AAPL which is down after Monday’s surge on the tariff exemption story. NFLX is reporting this week and is higher on an analyst upgrade and the Pavlovian buy ahead of earnings behavior. BAC and C earnings reaction positive and may help the financial sector. BA is lower on the shocking move by China to postpone deliveries after USA imposed +100% tariffs. LVMH lower on earnings is a negative signal for high end consumer enthusiasm for luxury handbags. Vix futures expire at the open Wed and in theory the expiration of call options may be positive for the S&P. Reminder that S&P is still negative gamma and Vix futures are inverted hence large intraday moves are possible. Tariff tape bombs are a risk. The upcoming ones are pharma and semi related but I think are expected next week.

·       SPY 536.5 Resistance 540 545 546.8 Support 535 531.4 530 QQQ 455.9 Resistance 460 465 Support 450

·       Daily Expected Move SPX(5483-5329), SPY(546.8-531.4), QQQ(465.4-449.6), IWM(189.7-183.3)

Stocks to watch AAPL, NVDA, BBUY, DELL, PLTR Speculative MP
Pre-800ET
Indices IBIT, EFA, GDX, GLD, UUP, UNG, USO, XLE, TLT, XLB, SPY, XLK

S&P500 NFLX, BAC, CHD, DOW, BA, GM, AAPL, PEP, JNJ

Other RKLB, MP, AU, BAC, BP, NBIS, ACI, BA, XPEV, KGC, AAPL

Trade Idea: MP

MP is not an immediate actionable idea. It’s a USA supplier of rare earth metals which are used to manufacture semiconductors and magnets. Strategically important and has been partially funded by DOD. Huge move Monday with China halting shipment makes the stock quite extended and hence only attractive to momentum traders with high risk tolerance. There is a large call position at 30 which can act as resistance or acceleration above. Safer approach is to look for a pullback > 25. It’s call heavy above 25 so the crowd has rushed in and IMO better to wait for a pullback or perhaps sell puts to get long.