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Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend 

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government 

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong – Negative global set-up

·        Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin

·        Yields: 30Y Bond -0.05%  Currencies:  USA$-.56% CAD +.27% YEN+.38%  BTC/USD +0.23%  Vix: 26.2

·        Stocks: JBHT-6% IBKR-7% ASML-4%  UAL+6% ABT RIO EPS NVDA -6.3% USA govt blocking H20 to China, NVDA took $5.5B charge. USA govt is blocking several AI chips including AMD and INTC chips. USA had just lifted the H20 restriction 1 week ago so this is a rapid reversal of a position and IMO makes it impossible to have faith in future revenue from China. Given that China is a major market, it is very negative for the semiconductor industry in general.
News:  USA: Retail sales 830ET CDN: BOC rate decision, no change expected
Overview:  Latest tape bomb is USA govt is preventing the export of H20 chips to China which represents 15% of NVDA revenue. Other chips that will be used with NVDA like MU will also be affected.  ASML (semi equipment) reported earnings and booking forecast was -44% Q-Q citing tariff concerns. Net impact is weakness in semiconductors and affecting the QQQ in general. UAL is higher on an earnings beat and provided 2 forecasts, a rosy one and a recession one. JBHT lower post earnings with concerns on how tariffs will impact trucking volume.  Mag7 all lower led by NVDA GOOGL and TSLA. Macro: USA retail sales were better than expected. US$ -0.5% is providing a boost to Gold Silver Platinum and adding to the narrative that foreign money is leaving the USA. Bonds are slightly lower and need to be watched as equity is trading inverse to yields. Vix options expire at the open and may lead to a sharp move. Vix futures remain inverted indicating risk-off and institutional hedging.

QQQ is below the bottom of the daily expected move hence risk of an outsized move lower. 450 is the decision level. SPY is above the daily expected move but watch 530 as the key decision level.

·        SPY 532.6 Resistance at 535 and 540 with Support at 530 and 525  QQQ 450.4 Resistance at 455 and 460 Support at 451.1 and 445

·        Daily Expected Move SPX(5464-5329) SPY(544.4-530.9) QQQ(464.9-451.1) IWM(189-184)

Stocks to watch AAPL, NVDA, BBUY, DELL, PLTR Speculative MP
Pre-800ET
Indices GDX, GLD, SLV, USO, XLE, EWC, IBIT, SMH, XLK, UNG, KWEB, ARKK, QQQ, FXI, ETHE

S&P500  UAL, DAL, NEM, AMD, NVDA, MU, SMCI, AVGO, INTC, GOOGL

Other AMD, NVDA, HOOD, INTC, TSLA, PLTR

Trade Idea: NVDA

NVDA is the big news name today with usa govt blocking export of H20 GPU as well as AI GPU from AMD and INTC.  NVDA overnight low 104. Below 104 the target is 100 where a large put position may provide support. Above watch 105 which may act as resistance and above 105 110 is the next level. NVDA is taking a $5.5B charge as a result of the action. It will affect MU, whose memory chips are packaged with NVDA and any other companies components. NVDA was trading at 100 prior to the short squeeze last Wed on the tariff pause hence 100 did not reflect a significant damage to the business and may not be a long term bottom in the stock but stocks don’t move in straight lines. See the down channel in the chart for reference.