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Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend 

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government 

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong – Mixed global set-up

·       Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin

·       Yields: 30Y Bond -0.3% Currencies: USA$+.17%, CAD -.08%, YEN-.39%, BTC/USD +0.44%,  Vix: 26.8

·       Stocks: UNH-20%, AXP-2.3%, TSM+3.4%, SCHW+3.9% EPS LLY+11%  GLP1 pill phase 3 approval NVO-4.6% 
News: USA: UE Philly Fed 830ET ECB: Rate decision, 25bps cut expected
Overview: USA indices fell Wed after Powell speech, which reiterated statement that Fed is watching data and not seeing any market action which necessitates Fed action. USA indices rose after the Wed close but have been falling since the European open. UNH is -20% post earnings and is causing the price weighted DIA to diverge from SPY and QQQ. Weighting of UNH will also be negative for XLV. LLY+11% on approval of a pill form for GLP1 and NVO moving lower in reaction. TSM positive earnings and guidance can help calm the jittery semiconductor stocks which are under pressure due to China export sanctions. Econ: UE claims 215k vs 225k Philly Fed -26.4 vs 2.2. 30Y bond -.19% after rising post Powell, US$ +.28% is positive since equity market has been falling with the US$. MAG7 are higher with NVDA lagging and NFLX leading ahead of earnings. China names are lifted premarket with BABA +4.2%. Today is Opex which can increase volatility today and next week. Often the market can be positive before a long weekend due to options positioning however these times are abnormal with tariff headline risk.

Simple bull bear levels: SPY 530 QQQ 450

·       SPY 529 Resistance 530 532.5 535 Support 525 520  QQQ 448.4 Resistance 450 451 Support 445 440

·       Daily Expected Move SPX(5343-5208) SPY(532.5-519) QQQ(451-437.7) IWM(188-182)

Stocks to watch LLY, SCHW, NFLX, AMZN, BABA, UNH Speculative HIMS
Pre-800ET
Indices KWEB, FXI, USO, XLE, SMH, QQQ, XLK, ETHE, EFA, XLC, XLV, SLV, GDX

S&P500 LLY, SCHW, PLTR, BX, AAPL, SMCI, AMZN, MU, AVGO, META, GOOGL, UNH, HUM, CVS

Other TSM, PLTR, TSLA, HIMS

Trade Idea: UNH

UNH fell 20% on an earnings miss. UNH premarket low 460 and premarket high 481. Day trading candidate. Often, there is a short covering bounce followed by potentially more selling. Can use VWAP as a decision level for long and short.  UNH had previously been at this level in Feb before bouncing so potential that it can repeat but need to be very very careful.