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Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend 

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government 

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong – Negative global set-up

·        Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin

·        Yields: 30Y Bond -1.13%  Currencies:  USA$-1.23% CAD +.25% YEN+1.16%  BTC/USD +2.65%  Vix: 27.4

·        Stocks: NFLX +1.8% EPS COF+3% merger with DFS+6% approved
News:  USA: CB leading index 10ET  China: Huawei began mass shipping of 910C AI chip which is reported to be comparable  to NVDA H100 (flagship). This follows the USA govt placing an export ban on the NVDA H20 chip. This is obviously negative for NVDA, AMD, INTC for which China is a major market. It will also bring focus on TSM which is likely mfg the chip and USA govt does not want chips to be sent to China.
Overview:  USA indices are lower premarket on a day with many stock exchanges closed. The trend is a continuation of the ongoing trend of US$, USA equities and USA bonds trading lower with the narrative that assets are leaving the USA. The leading sectors continue to be gold silver foreign currencies and gold miners. Bitcoin is higher and breaking out which is lifting bitcoin related names like MSTR and MARA. NFLX is higher post a strong earnings report but has been leaking since the report and currently 994. One can consider 1000 as a bull bear level and should NFLX not hold its gains its confirmation that money is exiting growth. The Huawei news  is another body blow to NVDA and the chip sector which is threatened by the tag team of China in-house products and USA export restrictions cutting into volume. A substantial percentage of NVDA chips have been shipped directly to China or proxies like Singapore. The weekend tariff news was devoid of deals and twitter was buzzing with negative comments by Trump directed at Powell with rumors of Powell’s removal which market will not like and contributing to the slide in US$ assets. Trump has been reactive to 10Y yield which has risen to 4.4% and 4.5% has been the level where an exclusion tweet has been released and a short covering pop has resulted. Indices are still above the bottom of the daily expected move and are good bull/bear levels. Low liquidity day so look for large moves in either direction with tweets potential catalysts.

·        SPY 520.05 with Resistance at 525, 528.3, and 530 with Support at 518.5 and 515. QQQ 437.5 with Resistance at 440 and 435 with Support at 435

·        Daily Expected Move SPX(5368-5198) SPY(535-518) QQQ(453-435,5) IWM(190-183)

Stocks to watch HMY, NEM, MSTR, IBIT, NFLX, DFS, COF,  NVDA, TSLA, AMD Speculative DJT
Pre-800ET
Indices GDX, ETHE, IBIT, GLD, SLV, FXI, SMH, ARKK, USO, XLK, QQQ, TLT, UUP, SPY, IGV, IWM

S&P500  NEM, NFLX, TSLA, NVDA, NVDA, SMCI, AAPL, AVGO, AMD, MU, PLTR

Other HMY, GOLD, MSTR, KGC, DJT, IONQ, TSM, HIMS, RIVN, SOFI, RKLB, TEM

Trade Idea: MSTR

MSTR is bitcoin on steroids and bitcoin is higher as the US$ continues to slide. While MSTR is above 320 it’s call heavy with 330 the first target which is the highest OI. Above 330 there are large call positions up to 340 which was the previous high. The weekly expected move is 341. MSTR is a crazy stock susceptible to outsized moves with bitcoin so not for the faint of heart. Bitcoin has been declining since Feb acting as a risk-on asset but in the last week has started to recover and potentially now acting as the inverse to the US$ much like Euro and Yen. Note that US$ is technically oversold and one tweet away from reversing. IMO it’s uncertain how bitcoin will react to a US$ bounce, whether it will then act as a risk-on asset. Note MSTR is also in the large cap indices so susceptible to index moves.