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Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend 

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government 

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong – Mixed global set-up

·       Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin

·       Yields: 30Y Bond +1.49%  Currencies:  USA$+.15% CAD -.08% YEN-.20%  BTC/USD +2.5%  Vix: 25.3

·       Stocks: ENPH-12% TSLA+7% ISRG+3.6% COF+2.85% BA+4.8% PM+4.5% BSX+8% GEV+7% T+3.6% EPS
News: USA: Flash mfg and services PMI 945ET; EUR:  MFG and services PMI sub 50 with services weaker, mfg stronger
Overview: USA indices have gapped up overnight following Tues squeeze. Squeeze started with a private meeting at JPM with Bessent where he said that Chinese tariffs would not remain massive. After the close Trump reinforced that tariffs would come down and that Powell would not be replaced. Bessent did add that China negotiations have not started so in reality absolutely nothing has changed however it was enough to start a short squeeze and a reversal of the consensus trade of short US$, long gold, short US bonds and short US equity. Currently USA indices are above the daily expected move and can continue to run with caution is that nothing has changed so stall out/reversal. SPX 5400-5500 is likely resistance and will be looking to see if 0DTE call sellers step up. There is very little 0DTE support below 5400 so potentially traders could use the short squeeze as exit liquidity to close previous under water positions. TSLA is the stock du jour, higher post a massive earnings, revenue miss but higher with Elon saying in May would be spending less time on Doge and talking up robo taxi. Analysts are tripping over themselves raising estimates. NVDA and semis are popping despite no discussion of changing export rules or concern that China has their own chips. Such is the bounces in bear trends in a negative gamma environment. For now hard data is irrelevant as flows dominate. Today the most shorted, oversold names which include retail faves and AI names are bouncing hard. Can continue as long as the flows allow or until the next WH tweet or Bloomberg rumor surfaces but until there is actual real change in policy it remains a dangerous market but positive is that WH will jawbone when markets are weak.

Simple bull bear levels: SPY 535 QQQ 450

·       SPY 539.4 Resistance  540 545 Support 535 530 QQQ 457 Resistance 460 465 Support 450 445

·       Daily Expected Move SPX(5366-5209) SPY(535-519) QQQ(452-437) IWM(190-184)

Stocks to watch TSLA, NVDA, AMZN, ISRG, BA, ENPH, gold Speculative VRT, SMCI 
Pre-800ET
Indices ETHE, ARKK, SMH, ARKG, XLY, IGV, XLK, QQQ, IWM, KRE, KWEB, XRT, GDX, GLD

S&P500  TSLA, SMCI, PLTR, NVDA, BA, INTC, AMZN, META, MU, AVGO, T, AMD, CCL, ORCL, NKE, AAPL, ENPH, BMY

Other VRT, SMMT, XPEV, HOOD, TEM, SOFI, HSAI, ASTS, RDDT, HIMS,  AU, HMY, GOLD

Trade Idea: NVDA

NVDA has bounced with the market to resistance,  days after taking a $5B charge due to China export ban.  Bessent and Trump jawboning that China tariffs wont be as large as currently stated does not negate the export restrictions. Large option positions at 105 make it a breakout level with target 110 should the short squeeze continue but otherwise potential to reverse with target 100 and 95. Weekly expected move range 107-95.