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Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend 

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government 

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong – Neutral global set-up

·        Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin

·        Yields: 30Y Bond +0.33%  Currencies:  USA$+.24% CAD -.09% YEN-.43%  BTC/USD +1.4%  Vix: 24.8

·        Stocks: GILD-3.3% FCX-1.7% INTC-7% TMUS-5% SLB-1.8% SAIA-10% SKX-5.5%    GOOGL+3.8% ABBV+3.6% CL+1.1%  EPS
News:  USA:Revised consumer sentiment 10ET CDN: Retail sales 830ET
Overview: USA indices are lower after the Thurs squeeze which lifted indices well above the daily and expected move. The market is highly reactive to anything tariff related, again no official change in policy but jawboning that talking to China and India is sufficient to squeeze shorts. GOOGL is higher on beating reduced targets, a new buyback and an increase in the dividend. GOOGL does not provide guidance but did say that a change in de minimus would be negative. The GOOGL move has lifted other advertising related names like PINS META TTD but given the subdued GOOGL reaction it’s worth watching the moves in these names. MAG7 is mixed with AAPL lower on plan to move all iPhone production to India, META higher since GOOGL higher and the 2 amigos for index manipulation, NVDA and TSLA higher slightly higher. GOOGL did say that they are keeping their capex spending elevated and using NVDA chips but they highlighted their own chips for inference so there is a move to replace NVDA with custom chips. INTC is pumelled yet again post earnings and is cutting capex and manpower.  Bitcoin is continuing to advance which lifts the usual suspects MARA MSTR HUT. US$ is higher as are bonds so the reversal in the consensus trade of short US equity, dollar and bonds is continuing however the biggest move has been in US equity as hedge funds cover.  There is no major economic data today so the path of the equity market is in the hands of 0DTE traders. The iron condor seller is back with strikes at 5545 and 5410. The call strike was breached Thurs and there is a tendency for the index to test one side.
Simple bull bear levels: SPY 545 QQQ 455

·        SPY 545.2 with Resistance at 550 and Support at 540  QQQ 465.4 with Resistance at 470 and Support at 465 and 460 

·        Daily Expected Move SPX(5558-5411) SPY(5554-539) QQQ(475-460) IWM(196.8-191)

Stocks to watch GOOGL, META, TSLA, IBIT, GDX, AAPL  Speculative RDDT, PINS, TTD 
Pre-800ET
Indices ETHE, IBIT, MSOS, TLT, XLC, UUP, GDX, UNG, GLD, USO, KWEB, XLE, SMH, XBI, SLV, IWM, IYT, XLB

S&P500  GOOGL, ABBV, META, INTC, AVGO, AAPL

Other RDDT, PINS, MARA, MSTR, TTD, HUT, SMMT, SKX, FUTU, BEKE, CLS, NVO, GOLD, JD, SNY, OKLO

Trade Idea: GOOGL

GOOGL popped on an earnings beat, additional buyback and a dividend increase. This should have been sufficient for a pop to at least the expected move, 170 but the lack of guidance and concern of future  slow down may be weighing on the stock. There are large call positions at 165 and 170 and one can use 165 as a line in the sand with potential for 170 above if they want to buy it and below 165 its a sign that that distribution will continue with 160 and 155 the first targets to the downside. IMO there was nothing in the earnings report to substantially change the opinion of GOOGL in the longer term and hence distribution may continue.  META TTD PINS have all moved higher with GOOGL and are potentially in play in either direction.

Revenue and earnings reported is backward looking so will not reflect the impact of the uncertainty brought on by tariff shenanigans and GOOGL tends to not provide forecasts so market reaction will be interesting. FTC legal action is ongoing which adds another degree of uncertainty.