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Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend 

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government 

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong – Slight Negative global set-up

·       Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin

·       Yields: 30Y Bond -.19% Currencies: USA$+.25% CAD +.04% YEN-.33%  BTC/USD -.12%  Vix: 23.6

·       Stocks: SBUX-8.8%, V-0.15%, SMCI-18%, FSLR-12.4%, NCLH-8.8%, SNAP-15%, CAT+.3%, ETSY+1.3%, GEHC+5%, HUM+4.5%, WDC+10.8%  EPS Trump expected to make an auto part announcement today
News: USA: ADP 815ET GDP 830ET PCE10ET Canada: GDP830ET

·       Overview: USA indices weakening into GDP with ADP jobs report 62k vs 128k expected. USA GDP Q1 -0.3% vs +0.3% expected. USA Core PCE Prices 3.6% vs prior 2.4% with PCE report a market moving event at 10ET. Canadian GDP -0.2% m/m vs 0%. Chinese mfg PMI weaker than expected and in contraction and services PMI weaker but still in expansion. Chinese weaker mfg PMI reflects on impact of the tariff shenanigans leading to weaker orders and is impacting commodities which are lower.  Reaction: SPY lower and approaching the bottom of the daily expected move and has fallen below the bull/bear level. QQQ  is below the bottom of the daily expected move and hence potential for continuation lower. IWM ditto. Indices have risen on low volume short covering and now hard data is leading to a pullback with risk being that there is a dearth of support from SPX options below. Earnings mixed with V beat and reporting consumers still spending; NCLH and BKNG reporting reduced demand; SNAP withdrew guidance on uncertain advertising spend; CAT reporting lower revenue; SMCI major miss on lower customer spend; SBUX miss which could be company specific. MAG7 are all lower with TSLA, NVDA leading to the downside. META MSFT are reporting after the close with META lower with SNAP report adding more concern on META’s advertising earnings. Take care at 10ET with the PCE data release. At risk today are the high short interest names, profitless tech which have been squeezed for the last few days as if shorts are out there is a lack of natural buyers.

·       Simple bull bear levels: SPY 550, QQQ 470

·       SPY 546.6 Resistance 550 Support 545 540 538, QQQ 466.2  Resistance 470  Support 465 460 

·       Daily Expected Move SPX(5625-5495), SPY(560.8-547.8), QQQ(482.5-468.5), IWM(198.7-193.5)

Stocks to watch CAT, TSLA, NVDA, META, SBUX, SNAP, PLTR  Speculative KC, SMCI
Pre-800ET
Indices FXI, KWEB, TLT, XLV, GDX, SLV, XME, XLY, GLD, ARKK, QQQ, SMH, XLK, IGV

S&P500 WDC, CAT, SMCI, FSLR, NCLH, SBUX, CCL, NVDA, MU, TSLA, PLTR, AMD, META, AMZN, NKE, AVGO

Other KC, NVO, HSAI, BABA, WGS, APP, CUE, RKLB, BHP, TEM, OKLO, IONQ, SOFI, HOOD

Trade Idea: META

META reports after the close today. Expected move is +/-40. SNAP withdrew guidance with advertising revenue uncertainty due to slowing economic growth and impact of tariffs not making the global economy great again. Option market is suggesting support at 500 and resistance at 575 which can be goal posts for a structure like an iron condor or butterfly trades. META has been in a down trend as institutions delver and like many such names has bounced as shorts exited so risk of continuation lower.