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Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend 

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government 

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Positive global set-up

·        Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin

·        Yields: 30Y Bond -.64%%  Currencies:  USA$-.23% CAD +0.25% YEN+.76%  BTC/USD +2.5%  Vix: 30.4

·        Stocks: LEVI +12% EPS
News:  USA: No economic data; S&P jumped 5% Monday on a false news report that tariffs would be paused for 90d. All that has happened since is USA has threatened China with more tariffs

·        Overview:  Global indices have moved higher overnight with no news on the USA tariffs. There was a 5% pop and drop on some bogus tariff news. Today could be a short squeeze but which may also plop or continue, we will see. Vix futures remain elevated at 31 and inverted so institutions are still hedging due to uncertainty. Liquidity is low hence larger moves intraday are to be expected. SPY 517 resistance at 520 and 525 with support at 510 and 500; QQQ  434 resistance at 440 and 450 support at 430 and 425.  Virtually all stocks are higher with larger moves by the higher beta or most “oversold”. MAG7 are led by NVDA, TSLA, AMZN but all have made large moves. NVDA and TSLA are the most popular hedge fund manipulation names and NVDA has been a crowded trade. Potential to be squeezed higher as has happened many times in the past. Semis have been under pressure due to slowing growth and tariff implications but today and yesterday in the absence of news the flows dominate rather than fundamentals. Caution is that news regarding tariffs is now the prime catalyst and news can occur at any time hence both bulls and bears are cautious. There doesn’t seem to be much 0DTE positioning premarket, SPX positions suggesting resistance at 5400 and support 4800.  China stocks are bouncing despite USA threatening increased tariffs and China not backing down. Commodities and yields are also bouncing after falling previously on concern that USA action will lead to global slowdown /  recession. Can interpret this as market thinks the WH will back away despite their continual confirmation of intent or its just a short squeeze which sets up the next move lower. Since either is possible, one can use the daily expected moves as key levels and look for acceleration above or rejection below. Note with IV elevated, large moves are expected. For example NVDA IV 86% is pricing in a daily move of 5.35% so the premarket move of +4.3% is 80% of what is expected.

Daily Expected Move SPX(5213-4911) SPY(520-489) QQQ(438-410) IWM(185-173)

Stocks to watch NVDA, AMZN, TSLA, GLD, TLT, Speculative BTU, LEVI, UPST, OKLO, APP
Pre-800ET
Indices ARKG/K, GDX, IWM, FXI, XLF, SMH, KWEB, XLK, EFA, IGV, QQQ, SPY, UUP, TLT

S&P500  SMCI, PLTR, NVDA, TSLA, AMZN, INTC, AAPL,
Other BTU, LEVI, UPST, OKLO, APP, VRT, AFRM, HOOD, FXI

Trade Idea:NVDA

NVDA is in a major bounce or short squeeze on no news. Premarket has moved 80% of what would be expected based on volatility. Large call positions at 101, 102, 105 so with price premarket 102.4 above 102 potential for 105 with 108 a stretch goal. Caution is that 100.8 is the top of the weekly expected move so already above hence already extended and risk of the shorts returning. Note that nothing has changed in terms of USA policy so IMO this is a technical bounce and risk of more selling is high unless there is a policy change. A break of 100 is a potential sell signal