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Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend 

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government 

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Negative global set-up

·       Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin

·       Yields: 30Y Bond -2.4%% Currencies: USA$-.74% CAD +0.32% YEN+1.3% BTC/USD -0.5% Vix: 42

·       Stocks: DAL 0% EPS
News: USA: FOMC Meeting minutes 14ET; NZ: Cut rates 25bps

·       Overview: Global indices lower premarket as China reacts to USA tariffs by increasing tariffs on USA goods by 50% to a total of 84%. Macro: USA 30y yields sharply higher, US$ lower along with USA equities suggesting money leaving the USA. Yield spreads are widening, MOVE index rising is indicating risk in the credit markets is increasing and probability of a May FED rate cut is at 50% in spite of Powell Fri saying that there weren’t concerns. SPY 486.6 is at the bottom of the daily expected move and close to the bottom of the weekly EM. SPY 480/SPX4800 are key support levels to watch as there is limited support below with SPX put wall shifting lower to SPX4700. With high volatility and negative gamma large intraday moves are to be expected in either direction. MAG7 generally lower with AAPL leading to the downside due to its proximity to the USA trade war but the rest are outperforming the QQQ so may act as a relative safe harbor. NVDA, AVGO, PLTR are bouncing premarket which is potentially a sign that shorts are covering which can lead to a morning pop. The deterioration in the fixed income market is impacting the financials like JPM and GS and negative for the IWM which has alot of smaller banks. Oil is down substantially and back to 2019 levels which will hit the Canadian market.  The bright area is gold, silver, gold miners Yen and other currencies as the US$ falls 1% which is a large move in the currency. Its not a traditional risk-off set-up as usually bonds and US$ would be higher. Rather it looks like a flow of capital out of US assets. FOMC meeting minutes at 14ET are usually market moving but in this case its all about the USA tariff war and the impact on the large USA multinationals and the USA economy.  Unknown how the tariff war will resolve so in short term pay attention to SPX 4800.

Daily Expected Move SPX(5237-4887) SPY(522-487) QQQ(439.5-408) IWM(186-173)

Stocks to watch GLD, NEM, DAL, NVDA, PLTR, TLT Speculative BTU, MSTR
Pre-800ET
Indices GDX, FXI, GLD, KWEB, SLV, IBIT, USO, UNG, TLT, XLE, XBI, IWM, KRE, XRT

S&P500 NEM, PLTR, NVDA, CCL, AVGO, DAL, JNJ, PFE, BMY, OXY, SLB, BAC, WFC, CVX, XOM, VZ, C, DOW, LUV, T, O, INTC, NKE
Other MSTR, IONQ, PDD, HOOD

Trade Idea:TLT

TLT is more than 2 standard deviations below the bottom of the weekly expected move and back to Feb lows. USA policy is to lower long term yields and the move lower in energy prices is deflationary. USA economy is slowing and potentially entering deflation which should result in lower long term yields. Issue right now IMO is capital leaving the USA but it may be time to consider nibbling on TLT. Can consider selling puts to take advantage of high IV as a way to collect premium and if assigned to own TLT at lower levels.  There is definitely a risk of lower levels  in the short term so this is a medium term idea.