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Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend 

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government 

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong – Slight Positive  global set-up

·        Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin

·        Yields: 30Y Bond +.2%  Currencies:  USA$+.46% CAD -.24% YEN-1.3%  BTC/USD +2.4%  Vix: 23.3

·        Stocks: QCOM-5,4% LLY-4.2% BDX–4.9% APD-2%  META+6% MSFT+9% HWM+6% CARR+5% HOOD+5% RBLX+8.6% MA+1.5% EPS AAPL lost App store lawsuit
News:  USA: UE claims 241k; ISM mfg 10ET  Japan: Dovish BOJ with tariff concerns, Yen lower, positive for US$

·        Overview: USA large caps surged at end of day Wed either due to end of month or front running META, MSFT earnings. Strong positive reaction to MSFT and META earnings reports which eased concerns of AI reduced capital spending. Premarket the AI basket is higher from chips to datacenter infrastructure to even nuclear reactors. MAG7 are led by MSFT which has moved 2x the expected move; META which moved to the expected move and though beat expectations is showing a slowdown; AMZN which is yet to report but higher due to MSFT. AAPL which has yet to report is lower on a judge ruling against AAPL on the App store case.  Oil is sub 60 post the weak GDP print and a stronger US$ as BOJ is dovish due to tariff concerns and inflation lower. MCD is lower as consumers are buying fewer BigMacs but MA higher as consumers are happy to spend on plastic. Bitcoin higher again as risk-on continues with MSTR reporting after the close and HOOD higher post earnings. ISM mfg data will report at 10ET and may be market moving but as evidenced Wed, weak data prints are important for a NY minute. UE claims made a 6w high but currently not a concern to algos that will be buying anything in the AI, high retail sentiment or high short interest buckets today

·        Simple bull bear levels: SPY 560 QQQ 480

·        SPY 559 with Resistance at 560 and 563.2 with Support at 555, 550, and 545  QQQ 482.8 with Resistance at 485 and Support at 480, 475, 472, and 470 

·        Daily Expected Move SPX(5632-5505) SPY(561-548) QQQ(482-469) IWM(197-192)

Stocks to watch MSFT, META, ANET, NVDA, AMZN, AAPL, QCOM Speculative RBLX, RDDT
Pre-800ET
Indices ETHE, ARKK, XLK, IGV, IBIT, ARKF, QQQ, SMH, ARKG, XLC, SPY,  GDX, GLD, USO, SLV, XLE, XLV, XLB

S&P500  MSFT, CVS, ANET, META, NVDA, AMZN, GM, MU, AVGO, AMD, PLTR, CCL, QCOM, LLY, MRNA, MCD, AAPL, OXY

Other NBIS, RBLX, VRT, RDDT, HOOD, ZETA, W, NVO, SMR, OKLO, MSTR, TEM,  CFLT, GOLD, ET, S, NU, DKNG 

Trade Idea: AAPL

AAPL is reporting after the close. Lower today on a loss in the FTC case involving the app store. Tariff uncertainty hangs over AAPL that will not be resolved ahead of earnings. AAPL was airlifting phones ahead of tariffs so it will be interesting what they report and forecast. Expected move is +/-9.2.  Large put positions at 200 and call at 230 may set the range. iPhone forecasts will move suppliers like SWKS QCOM QCOM MU.  A low risk way to trade AAPL is with butterfly trades which have a high reward to risk.