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Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend 

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government 

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong – positive global set-up

·       Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin

·       Yields: 30Y Bond -.66% Currencies: USA$+1.25%, CAD -.35%, YEN-1.8%, BTC/USD+0.58%, Vix: 20

·       Stocks: MNDY+4.2% EPS
News: USA: USA/China 90d reduction in tariffs. USA applying 30% China applying 10%.
Overview: USA has reduced China tariffs to 30% which is lower than the 50% expected by the market and China lowered tariffs to 10%. It is not clear what the total tariff situation is since prior to April 5 there were various tariffs depending on the product. It is also not clear what semiconductor export restriction status is. This is a 90d pause, but IMO the WH is backpedaling on the realization that the tariff policy would have been very damaging so unlikely they would revert. The companies most damaged by the prior tariff policy like AAPL AMZN and small caps (IWM) are bouncing the most. Unclear what the ultimate damage has been done for upcoming quarters or what a 30% tariff on China means to importers. Principal reaction is US$ higher and yields higher. WH announced price controls on pharma prices which is negative for drug companies. The 10y yield is back to 4.4% which is close to the top of the range with a move to 4.5% a level where suspect the WH or Treasury will be acting. The higher US$ is pressuring gold and silver, but the notion that WH is backing off to prevent a global recession is providing a bid to oil and industrial metals. USA indices have moved well above daily and weekly expected moves hence very extended. The short-term bullish thesis is trend follower flipping long, buyback window open and shorts covering, which brings SPY 590 into play. Today most stocks are technically extended with potential to continue to run but big picture IMO the economic situation has not benefited c.f. prior to the tariff barrage.

Simple bull bear levels: SPY 580 QQQ 505 IWM 210 

·       SPY 581.5  Resistance  583.7 585   Support 580 578.6 575  QQQ 507 Resistance 510 515   Support 505 500 495

·       Daily Expected Move.  Indices are well above daily and weekly expected moves

Stocks to watch AMZN, TSLA, NKE, NEM, LLY, TLT Speculative  ZIM, W, VFC, NBIS
Pre-800ET
Indices ETHE, ARKK, SMH, XLY, XRT, KWEB, KRE, ARKQ, IWM, XLK, MSOS, GDX, GLD, SLV, UNG, TLT, XLV

S&P500 AMZN, TSLA, DOW, MU, ON, ANET, CCL, NKE, AMAT, DAL, LRCX, ACOM, META, NEM, LLY, MRK, PFE, BMY, T

Other ZIM, W, VFC, NBIS, ALAB, MAD, SHOP, HUT, RGTI, ETHA, CLS, AMZN, VRT, GFI, HMY, PAAS, NEM, B, KGC, NVO, AZN, BULL, LLY, MRK

Trade Idea: AMZN

AMZN is gapping up on the China tariff announcement. All is not back to normal for AMZN, for example the de minimus order is still in place which affects some market place companies and its not obvious what a 30% tariff means. However market moves with flows and AMZN call wall is 200 and with price 211, call positioning suggests potential move to 215 and 220, which aligns with TRP target 2. Longer term risk is that the economic backdrop has not improved since AMZN reported earnings and would not be surprising that the short-term pop on removal of catastrophic tariffs is not lasting.