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  • Swing Trade Idea – May 13, 2025

    Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

    ** ‘div’ – dividend 

    ** ‘m/m’ – month over month

    ** ‘y/y’ – year over year

    ** ‘Inven’ – inventories

    ** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

    ** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

    ** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

    ** ‘d’ – day

    ** ‘Y’ – year

    **govt – government 

     

    Color Key: Positive Neutral Negative
    Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong neutral global set-up

    ·       Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin

    ·       Yields: 30Y Bond -.08% Currencies: USA$-0.19%, CAD +0.03%, YEN+0.15%, BTC/USD+1.78%, Vix: 18.65

    ·       Stocks: SE+11.6%, JD+3.5%, SMR+1.2%, ONON+5.3%, ASTS-3.4%, RGTI -10.8% EPS COIN+9.8% added to S&P500 UNH-10% Suspended 2025 outlook due to higher costs, new CEO
    News: USA: CPI 830ET 
    Overview: Ahead of USA CPI print USA indices are flattish post the squeeze on the China tariff news. Global indices are mixed with Asian indices lower. WH decree of day was to decrease the tariff on de minimis but remains elevated versus previous no-tariff. Slightly positive for AMZN which is leading the MAG7. Major movers: UNH lower after suspending guidance which is weighing on the DJIA and COIN higher after being added to the S&P500. Bitcoin continues higher and lifting the usual suspects like MSTR MARA etc. US$ is lower ahead of CPI which would be the expected reaction to a lower CPI print and leading to gold and silver higher. **** USA CPI 2.3%  y-y 0.2% m-m US Core CPI 2.8% y-y 0.2% m-m  Reaction: Indices spiked on print; 2y and 10y yield slightly lower; Vix lower; US$ slightly lower; Gold and Silver lower. ***

    Simple bull bear levels: SPY 580, QQQ 505, IWM 210 

    ·       SPY 582.5 Resistance 585 590 Support 580 578 577 575  QQQ 508 Resistance 510 515 Support 505 503.7 500 495

    ·       Daily Expected Move. SPX(5897-5791) SPY(588-578) QQQ(514-502) IWM(211-205)

    Stocks to watch
    AMZN, NVDA, COIN, SE, JD, UNH Speculative FSLR,  HOOD, ONON
    Pre-800ET
    Indices
    ETHE, BIT, USO, SLV, ARKK, GDX, GLD, XLE, ARKF, FXI, KWEB, XLV, EFA, UNG, UUP, SPY

    S&P500  FSLR, BA, UNH, ENPH, CVS

    Other SE, COIN, FSLR, RUN, JD, ONON, HUT, HOOD, SMR, STLA, MSTR, TEM, MARA, RGTI, UNH, ENPH, PONY, XPEV, CVS, ASTS, NVO, IONQ, ASTS, QBTS



    Trade Idea: ONON

    ONON is a post earnings idea. Traded above the expected move and above a major call position at 55. Can use 55 as a bull bear level with potential for 60 on the upside and 50 to the downside should it be a sell the news event. 6% short float. Other post earning names to consider are SE and RGTI where can look for continuation of reversion.  

     

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