Swing Trade Idea – May 13, 2025
Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:
** ‘div’ – dividend
** ‘m/m’ – month over month
** ‘y/y’ – year over year
** ‘Inven’ – inventories
** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing
** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative
** Underlined text – higher volume premarket
** ‘d’ – day
** ‘Y’ – year
**govt – government
Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China,
Hong Kong – neutral global set-up
· Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin
· Yields: 30Y Bond -.08% Currencies: USA$-0.19%, CAD +0.03%, YEN+0.15%, BTC/USD+1.78%, Vix: 18.65
· Stocks: SE+11.6%,
JD+3.5%, SMR+1.2%, ONON+5.3%, ASTS-3.4%, RGTI -10.8% EPS COIN+9.8% added to
S&P500 UNH-10% Suspended 2025 outlook due to higher costs, new CEO
News: USA: CPI 830ET
Overview: Ahead of USA CPI print USA indices are flattish post the
squeeze on the China tariff news. Global indices are mixed with Asian indices
lower. WH decree of day was to decrease the tariff on de minimis but remains
elevated versus previous no-tariff. Slightly positive for AMZN which is leading
the MAG7. Major movers: UNH lower after suspending guidance which is weighing
on the DJIA and COIN higher after being added to the S&P500. Bitcoin
continues higher and lifting the usual suspects like MSTR MARA etc. US$ is
lower ahead of CPI which would be the expected reaction to a lower CPI print
and leading to gold and silver higher. **** USA CPI 2.3% y-y 0.2% m-m US
Core CPI 2.8% y-y 0.2% m-m Reaction: Indices spiked on print; 2y and 10y
yield slightly lower; Vix lower; US$ slightly lower; Gold and Silver lower. ***
Simple bull bear levels: SPY 580, QQQ 505, IWM 210
· SPY 582.5 Resistance 585 590 Support 580 578 577 575 QQQ 508 Resistance 510 515 Support 505 503.7 500 495
· Daily
Expected Move. SPX(5897-5791) SPY(588-578) QQQ(514-502) IWM(211-205)
Stocks to watch AMZN, NVDA, COIN, SE, JD, UNH Speculative FSLR,
HOOD, ONON
Pre-800ET
Indices ETHE, BIT, USO, SLV, ARKK, GDX, GLD, XLE, ARKF, FXI, KWEB,
XLV, EFA, UNG, UUP, SPY
S&P500 FSLR, BA, UNH, ENPH, CVS
Other SE, COIN, FSLR, RUN, JD, ONON, HUT, HOOD, SMR, STLA, MSTR, TEM, MARA, RGTI, UNH, ENPH, PONY, XPEV, CVS, ASTS, NVO, IONQ, ASTS, QBTS
Trade Idea: ONON
ONON is a post earnings idea. Traded above the expected move and above a major call position at 55. Can use 55 as a bull bear level with potential for 60 on the upside and 50 to the downside should it be a sell the news event. 6% short float. Other post earning names to consider are SE and RGTI where can look for continuation of reversion.
