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  • Swing Trade Idea – May 16, 2025

    Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

    ** ‘div’ – dividend 

    ** ‘m/m’ – month over month

    ** ‘y/y’ – year over year

    ** ‘Inven’ – inventories

    ** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

    ** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

    ** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

    ** ‘d’ – day

    ** ‘Y’ – year

    **govt – government 

     

    Color Key: Positive Neutral Negative
    Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong slight positive global set-up

    ·       Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin

    ·       Yields: 30Y Bond +.86% Currencies: USA$-0.12% CAD -0.06% YEN+0.48% BTC/USD+.5% Vix: 18

    ·       Stocks: TTWO+0%, AMAT-4.5%, DOCS-15% EPS NVO CEO stepping down
    News: USA: UofM 10ET
    Overview: USA indices rising since European open on Opex day with the bulk of index options expiring at the open and single stock options expiring at the close. The option market is very call heavy which has the potential to lead to consolidation/pullback in the coming week as call expire. Large SPX position at 5925 may act as a magnet today, but with few positions above, if they want to pump it today, there is nothing stopping them. Setup is risk-on in the USA market with small caps, speculative tech leading. The space, quantum, AI names are strong which is common in the risk-on set-up. Mag7 led by NVDA TSLA and GOOGL with GOOGL following up on a strong move Thurs and NVDA continuing to run post the Saudi announcement with AMD strong post Saudi. AMAT lower after revenue miss and providing wide guidance may impact other semi equipment co’s.  Long bond yield sharply lower and pullbacks in gold, silver, copper reversal from Thurs move. Gold lower may be reflecting less market concern and potential calming of the geopolitical climate. On an Opex day the premarket index move reflects the AM index expiration and may not be reflective of the day. Single stocks expire at EOD and with so many calls expiring, potential for a surge or dip into EOD.
    Simple bull bear levels: SPY 590 QQQ 520 IWM 209 

    ·       SPY 592.5 Resistance 593.5 595 Support 590 588 586 QQQ 521.4  Resistance 523 525 Support 520 514
    Daily Expected Move. SPX(55958-5876) SPY(595-586) QQQ(525-514) IWM(210-206)

    Stocks to watch
    AMD, NVDA, GOOGL, VST, AMAT, GLD, NVO  Speculative ACHR, RGTI, IONQ
    Pre-800ET
    Indices
    ETHE, ARKK, TLT, IWM, IBIT, XBI, XLV, ARKG, XLY, GDX, GLD, SLV, UNG, USO

    S&P500 VST, UNH, SMCI, GOOGL, CCL, TSLA, NVDA, PLTR, AMAT

    Other ACHR, HSAI, RKT, BILI, RGTI, ASTS, IONQ, OKLO, PONY, SOUN, LUNR, COIN, QBTS, TEM, UPST, GLOB, DOCS, NVO,  NU, JD, DB 




    Trade Idea: NVDA

    NVDA continues to advance post the Saudi announcement. Call wall 140 and a potential target should they want to pump it up. Jensen is speaking at a conference on Monday and clothed in his leather jacket will be in pump mode. Earnings are at the end of May which may mean that it may hold up better than other stocks which are at risk of pullback with a call heavy Opex today. 135 is the key hold level.  Caveat, there is a difference between “deals” and purchase orders and multi-billion build outs don’t get done in a day but market is pricing it all in upfront. Caveat emporer

     

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