Swing Trade Idea – May 16, 2025
Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:
** ‘div’ – dividend
** ‘m/m’ – month over month
** ‘y/y’ – year over year
** ‘Inven’ – inventories
** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing
** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative
** Underlined text – higher volume premarket
** ‘d’ – day
** ‘Y’ – year
**govt – government
Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China,
Hong
Kong – slight positive global set-up
· Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin
· Yields: 30Y Bond +.86% Currencies: USA$-0.12% CAD -0.06% YEN+0.48% BTC/USD+.5% Vix: 18
· Stocks: TTWO+0%, AMAT-4.5%,
DOCS-15% EPS NVO CEO stepping down
News: USA: UofM 10ET
Overview: USA indices rising since European open on Opex day with the
bulk of index options expiring at the open and single stock options expiring at
the close. The option market is very call heavy which has the potential to lead
to consolidation/pullback in the coming week as call expire. Large SPX position
at 5925 may act as a magnet today, but with few positions above, if they want
to pump it today, there is nothing stopping them. Setup is risk-on in the USA
market with small caps, speculative tech leading. The space, quantum, AI names
are strong which is common in the risk-on set-up. Mag7 led by NVDA TSLA and
GOOGL with GOOGL following up on a strong move Thurs and NVDA continuing to run
post the Saudi announcement with AMD strong post Saudi. AMAT lower after revenue
miss and providing wide guidance may impact other semi equipment co’s.
Long bond yield sharply lower and pullbacks in gold, silver, copper reversal
from Thurs move. Gold lower may be reflecting less market concern and potential
calming of the geopolitical climate. On an Opex day the premarket index move
reflects the AM index expiration and may not be reflective of the day. Single
stocks expire at EOD and with so many calls expiring, potential for a surge or
dip into EOD.
Simple bull bear levels: SPY 590 QQQ 520 IWM 209
· SPY 592.5
Resistance 593.5 595 Support 590 588 586 QQQ 521.4 Resistance 523 525
Support 520 514
Daily Expected Move. SPX(55958-5876) SPY(595-586) QQQ(525-514) IWM(210-206)
Stocks to watch AMD, NVDA, GOOGL, VST, AMAT, GLD, NVO Speculative
ACHR,
RGTI, IONQ
Pre-800ET
Indices ETHE, ARKK, TLT, IWM, IBIT, XBI, XLV, ARKG, XLY, GDX, GLD,
SLV, UNG, USO
S&P500 VST, UNH, SMCI, GOOGL, CCL, TSLA, NVDA, PLTR, AMAT
Other ACHR, HSAI, RKT, BILI, RGTI, ASTS, IONQ, OKLO, PONY, SOUN, LUNR, COIN, QBTS, TEM, UPST, GLOB, DOCS, NVO, NU, JD, DB
Trade Idea: NVDA
NVDA continues to advance post the Saudi announcement. Call wall 140 and a potential target should they want to pump it up. Jensen is speaking at a conference on Monday and clothed in his leather jacket will be in pump mode. Earnings are at the end of May which may mean that it may hold up better than other stocks which are at risk of pullback with a call heavy Opex today. 135 is the key hold level. Caveat, there is a difference between “deals” and purchase orders and multi-billion build outs don’t get done in a day but market is pricing it all in upfront. Caveat emporer
