.

Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend 

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government 

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong – neutral global set-up

·       Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin

·       Yields: 30Y Bond -0.8% Currencies: USA$-0.43%, CAD +0.31%, YEN+0.55%, BTC/USD-0.4% Vix: 19.85

·       Stocks: LOW+1.7%, BIDU+2.6%, TJX-1.5%, PANW-4.9%, VFC-12.5%, TGT-6.5% EPS TTWO-4% $1B stock offering UNH-3% downgrade
News:  USA: Several FOMC member speaking UK: CPI above expectations
Overview: USA indices lower overnight with SPY approaching the low of the daily expected move. US yields higher and US$ lower as the admin arm twists Congress to accept the big beautiful bill which reduces taxes and increases the deficit. Retail earnings reactions negative as TGT, VFC  provided weak forecasts and LOWs cited uncertainty. PANW lower post earnings may weigh on other security stocks. UNH lower on a downgrade and a news story with allegations of improper activity which UNH denies. MAG7 are mixed with TSLA, GOOGL higher and NVDA, AAPL, MSFT lower. Jenson commented on China strength in AI technology despite USA export controls. IMO he is pushing to have export controls dropped. SPX 0DTE positioning indicates no resistance above 5925 and little support below 5900 with a large put position at 5875 with no support until 5800 should they decide to push it lower. No econ data today, just a few Fed speakers so market is in the hands of 0DTE traders. Example was Tues when some 0DTE call selling caused a sharp pullback which quickly reversed. Potential for tape bombs related to tax bill or tariff announcements. Rising bond yields are a concern but so far equity market is ignoring, potentially expecting treasury or Fed action to reduce yields. Small caps, housing and regional banks are the most sensitive to high long end yields.

Simple bull bear levels: SPY 590, QQQ 515, IWM 208 

·       SPY 589.9 Resistance 590 595 597  Support 588 587 585, QQQ 517.4  Resistance 518 520 525 Support 515 510
Daily Expected Move SPX(5983-5897), SPY(597-588), QQQ(525-515), IWM(211-207)

Stocks to watch TSLA, GOOGL, BIDU, PANW, TGT, NVDA, IWM    Speculative QBTS
Pre-800ET
Indices ETHE, USO, UNG, FXI, GDX, KWEB, TLT, IWM, XRT, IGV, KRE, ARKK, XLK, XBI, QQQ, XLF, SPY

S&P500 MRNA, AES, TGT, PANW, TTWO, UNH, TJX, MU

Other QBTS, XPEV, BIDU, LI, QUBT, HMY, NVO, VFC, YMM, TPG, ACHR, NU, RDDT, HIMS, SOFI, SMR, OKLO

Trade Idea: TGT

TGT lower after slashing guidance. 91.25 premarket. Put wall is 90 which may act as support or acceleration lower to 85 which is the next major put position. Usually there is a bounce with short covering at the open which can provide a short entry with 90 the first target:).  Alternate thesis is they buy the dip which would be signaled by price remaining above VWAP.