.

Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend 

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government 

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
Market Setup- Pre-730ET

Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong – Slight Negative  global set-up

·       Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin

·       Yields: 30Y Bond +.24% Currencies: USA$-.4%, CAD -.08%, YEN+.8%,  BTC/USD -3.2%,  Vix: 23.

·       Stocks: BRK -2.7% Buffet stepping down as CEO, NFLX -5.5%, DIS-2.9%, WH putting 100% tariff on foreign produced moves
News: USA: ISM Service PMI 10ET; Bessent speaking 11ET  Trade: Bessent tweeting about meetings with Japan. Trump saying that China tariffs wont stay super elevated. LOL!

·       Overview: USA indices have pulled back post Fri squeeze on the non-farm payroll better than consensus and a 9 day run higher for first time since 2004. Latest tariff news is 100% on foreign produced films which is hitting NFLX and DIS. Rumors of a framework with either Japan or Korea within 2 weeks is the latest bone being offered by the WH while narrative is increasing of a sharp drop in China-USA container ships. SPX gamma positioning remains negative between 5800 and 5500 and Nomura has written that firms are hedging positions and there is a scarcity of upside calls. SPX and some major names are signaling Demark 9 potential reversal indication although technical oscillators are bullish and bulls are looking forward to the 200sma. MAG7 are negative after a strong move last week with AMZN and NVDA leading to the downside however beta adjusted are outperforming the Nasi. Speculative/high short interest names have been outperforming last 2 weeks and leading to the downside. Bitcoin has been an outperformer for the last 2 weeks and is pulling back, which is hitting the related names like MSTR, MARA. Gold, which has pulled back is  bouncing as the US$ moves lower against most currencies. ISM services at 10ET and Bessent speaking at 11ET may be market moving.  Indices are technically bullish and last week dips were bought on weak/uncertain earnings reports and weak GDP and share buyback window is opening for MAG7  so can continue but option positioning setup is unstable so large moves are possible on a tweet.
    

·       Simple bull bear levels: SPY 560 QQQ 480

·       SPY 562.2  Resistance  565 566 570  Support 561 560 555  QQQ 484  Resistance 485 490 495  Support 483 480 470

·       Daily Expected Move SPX(5744-5629) SPY(572-561) QQQ(495-483) IWM(203-198)

Stocks to watch GDX, GLD, NFLX, DIS, BRK, AMZN Speculative GFI, HMY, PONY, MARA, MSTR
Pre-800ET
Indices GDX, GLD, UNG, SLV, IBIT, USO, ETHE, XLE, XLC, QQQ, ARKK

S&P500 NFLX, DIS, BRK, SMCI, AMZN, OXY, NVDA, MU, CRM, ABNB, META

Other GFI, HMY, TEVA, BP, GOLD, PONY, BE, HIMS, TGTX, PDD, MARA, MSTR, HOOD, RKLB, SOFI, OKLO, RGTI, XYZ, IONQ, TEM, AAL, JD 

Trade Idea: HMY

HMY is a $9B market cap gold miner headquartered in S Africa. HMY has pulled back from stretched levels along with gold but is bouncing premarket as the US$ pulls back and gold rises. Speculative, higher beta gold miner which makes it higher risk. If looking for lower beta gold miner play can consider GDX or GDXJ basket ETFs. Bitcoin pullback may lead to money moving back to gold to play the weaker US$