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Swing Trade Idea – June 11, 2025

Date:Jun 11, 2025

Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing

** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong – neutral global set-up

• Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin
• Yields: 30Y Bond +.47%  Currencies:  USA$+.05% CAD -.13% YEN-.02%  BTC/USD +0.73%  Vix: 18.2
• Stocks: CHWY-7.5% VSCO-1% GTLB GME  SAIL+9.9% SFIX+21%    EPS  LMT-2.5% Pentagon cutting F35 budget; Quantum stocks RGTI QBTS IONQ higher on Jenson comments; TLN+5.8% AMZN deal; OUST+20% DOD headline
  News:  USA: CPI 830ET; USA-China concluded trade talk and have agreed on a framework for a trade deal with China allowing export of rare earth metals and USA potentially allowing export of chip design software and jet engines
• Overview:  USA indices pulled back overnight and bouncing into the CPI print. China-USA trade discussions concluded with a framework for the future with little substantial info but China will resume rare earth metals (negative for MP) and USA may allow export of chip design software (postive for SNPS CDNS)  and jet engines (positive for GE and Rolls Royce). Otherwise it still cloudy. *** CPI 0.1% vs 0.2%, Core 0.1% m/m vs 0.3%, Core 2.8% vs 2.9% y/y  Reaction: indices higher, TLT higher, gold & silver higher,  bitcoin higher *** MAG7 led by TSLA which is continuing to run ahead of robotaxi trial Jun12 and GOOGL which is continuing to run with positive news of OpenAI relationship. Positive comments by Jenson is fueling continuation by speculative quantum stocks. TLN extended nuclear deal with AMZN is popping the stock and providing more fuel for other power generation and nuclear names. Indices are led by IWM which has the highest short interest and the most sensitive to lower rates. The reaction of equity is normal due to elevated IV ahead of the CPI print and drop in bond yields. SPX is positive gamma which means pops will be sold and dips will be sold. 6050-6075 are potential upside targets based on 0DTE positioning with 6000 the logical support level.  10Y bond auction today at 13ET will be market moving.
  
  Simple bull bear levels: SPY 605 QQQ 535 IWM 215
• SPY 605.3 Resistance 609 610  Support 605 604 600 QQQ 536.6  Resistance 540 Support 535 530
  Daily Expected Move. SPX(6090-5987) SPY(608-598) QQQ(539-529)  IWM(217-211)
  
  Stocks to watch TSLA GOOGL MU  CHWY Speculative QUBT  AMSC GTLB
  Pre-800ET
  Indices UNG USO QTUM FXI MSOS KWEB XLE SLV TLT XME

S&P500  TSLA MU

Other SAIL QUBT BILI TLN RGTI IONQ INOD SMR QBTS AMSC GTLB CHWY IREN MP GME GGAL HMY NBIS APLD

Trade Idea: GOOGL

GOOGL has been a laggard MAG7 and is breaking out on the daily into a volume by price gap.  180 is the call wall so above that level can see 185-200 but GOOGL has made a 50% retracement of the fall so at a pivot level where potential for retracement if cannot move above. OpenAI cloud deal is a recent positive but the anti-trust situation is still a concern with that case a risk until an Aug decision.