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Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend 

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government 

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong – negative global set-up

·         Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin

·         Yields: 30Y Bond +.03%  Currencies:  USA$ +.5% CAD -.2% YEN-.45%  BTC/USD -1.5%  Vix: 20.1

·         Stocks:  ADBE-3.6%    RH+20% EPS   News:  USA: Consumer confidence 10ET; Israel attacked Iran, Iran response TBD

·         Overview:  Global indices pulled back overnight after Israel attacked Iran. S&P has been bouncing since 1ET. As expected oil, gold, defense stocks and Vix have all bounced hard and stocks which use oil like airlines, cruise are moving lower the most. Spec tech in the hot sectors like space, AI are moving lower with general S&P names a beta expected pullback. S&P is still in positive gamma which means market makers buy dips and sell rips so the stability is as expected. The unknown is the Iranian response which may occur today or over the weekend which can keep vol sellers offside and can limit bounces today at the index level. I don’t see much 0DTE put buying premarket but 5975 is a level to watch with potential for 5900 below. ADBE is lower on earnings but not yet at the expected move. RH squeezed higher post earnings. MAG7 is generally lower with TSLA leading to the downside but AAPL is green on a report of better China sales, watch if it can move above 200. WH discussing money for rare earth metals in the USA. MP USAR are up on this but currently MP requires China for production. SHOP is discussing using stable coin for payment to avoid the V, MA payment network is weighing on them. Today the question is whether they pile back into the spec tech/high short interest names and whether oil can continue to run. The oil move is currently based on risk that Iran closes the Strait of Hormez or hits oil production in adjoining countries. Absence that oil can return to economic levels.  SPY and QQQ are at or below the bottom of the daily expected move which can lead to a bounce but alternatively continue to the downside. Pay attention to SPX 5975 level. There is little support to 5900 if they buy 0DTE puts today. The consumer confidence at 10ET is potentially market moving but Israel-Iran dwarfs today.

Simple bull bear levels: SPY 600 QQQ 530 IWM 210

·         SPY 598.8 with Resistance at 599, 600, 603 and Support at 598, 595, QQQ 528 with Resistance at 530, 532, 535 and Support at 523.4, 520
Daily Expected Move. SPX(6100-5990) SPY(609-598) QQQ(538-530)  IWM(215-211)

Stocks to watch USO, OXY, DVN, MP,  TSLA, NVDA  Speculative USAR, ACHR, OKLO
Pre-800ET
Indices USO, XLE, GDX, GLD, UUP,  ETHE, ARKG, SMH, ARKK, ARKQ, KWEB, IBIT, FXI, IWM, XLV, XLY, IGV, XRT, FEZ

S&P500  OXY, DVN, APA, HAL, SLB, XOM, CVX, UAL, CCL, DAL, NCLH, ADBE, MU, SMCI, MRNA, INTC, AVGO, GOOGL

Other FRO, CNQ, MP, EQNR, PBR, USAR, BP, ZM, TTE, SHEL, NVO, SBET, ACHR, OKLO, AAL, PGY, NBIS, NNE, X, LUNR, CRWV, TEM

Trade Idea: MP

USA govt is talking about more funding for rare earth metals and MP is the big USA one. Stock is very extended and probably needs a pullback and is currently dependent on China for processing; however most are unaware. Call wall 30 and above 31 can squeeze to 35 and 40. IMO short term this is  a narrative trade vs a fundamental one so take care.