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Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend 

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government 

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong – positive global set-up

·         Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin

·         Yields: 30Y Bond -.33%  Currencies:  USA$ -.2% CAD +.22% YEN-.19%  BTC/USD +1.6%  Vix: 19.9

·         Stocks:  SATS+42% Trump involved with FCC, SRPT- 36%, TSLA+ 2% Bloomberg report that USA may reduce regulations for driverless cars
News:  USA: Empire state mfg 830ET China: Industrial production y/y weaker than expected; Retail sales better than expected. Israel-Iran: Missiles exchanged all weekend but market appears to be selling escalation.

·         Overview:  Global indices bounced Sunday night after selling last week despite Israel and Iran continuing to exchange missiles. Pretty typical bounce with a positive gamma set-up which means dips are bought coupled with weekend shorts being unwound. Oil and gold are pulling back from last week’s risk-off spike. The equity leadership remains in the speculative tech sector with semis, quantum, space bid. The ARK ETFs are a way to trade this type of name. Bitcoin is higher signaling risk-on at least premarket. ARK ETFs are way to trade this type of stock. MAG7 are led by TSLA on a report that the USA govt may relax regulations on driverless card ahead of this months Austin trial. (Elon rewarded for bending the knee). ROKU is spiking on a deal with AMZN; X higher with Trump approving merger with Nippon steel; SATS spiking with Trump intervening with FCC. Senate is voting on stablecoin legislation which can boost CRCL. V and MA fell last weak due to threat of transactions moving to stablecoin and WMT and COST talking about issuing stablecoins. SPX range into Fri expiration likely 5975-6050. The Sunday future bounce has lifted SPY and SPX close to the top of the daily expected move with SPX6025 building in 0DTE and can be used as a resistance / breakout level. Though the USA equity market is set-up risk-on, note that there is still geopolitical risk and Trump tweets can occur at any time.

 
Simple bull bear levels: SPY 600, QQQ 530, IWM 210,

·         SPY 600.86 Resistance 601 604,4 605 Support 600 597 595  593, QQQ 531 Resistance 535 Support 530 529 525,
Daily Expected Move. SPX(6017-5937), SPY(601-593), QQQ(533-521),  IWM(211.5-205)

Stocks to watch TSLA, AMD, CCL, ROKU, PLTR, NEM  Speculative SMR, X, OKLO, ZIM
Pre-800ET
Indices ETHE, MSOS, ARKK, UNG, ARKX, KWEB, ARKF, FXI, IBIT, SMH, QTUM, USO, GDX, GLD, TLT, XLE

S&P500  CCL, AMD, COIN, NCLH, PLTR, MU, TSLA, SMCI, AVGO, TER, INTC, NVDA, NEM

Other SATS, ROKU, SMR, X, OKLO, QUBT, QBTS, ASTS, MP, XPEV, ETHA, ZIM, SRPT, TTD, NVO

Trade Idea: TSLA

TSLA is higher on USA govt arm twisting the regulator to loosen restrictions on driverless calls. TSLA is planning on a trial in Austin this month for Robo taxi so potential for a run up into the event just like what we recently saw before the trial was extended. TSLA Robotaxi is cheaper than Waymo which uses Lidar and other sensors to improve safety which benefits TSLA and aided by regulation changes. Potentially hints that Elon is back on the right side of Trump. 330 is an important options strike so long > 330 with targets 340 and 350 and < 330 look for 320, 315. Can use spreads or flies for lower risk long or short strategies. Option market is pricing in +/-22 for the week.