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  • Swing Trade Idea – June 17, 2025

    Jun 17, 2025 Uncategorized Comments Off on Swing Trade Idea – June 17, 2025

    Date:Jun 17, 2025

    Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

    ** ‘div’ – dividend

    ** ‘m/m’ – month over month

    ** ‘y/y’ – year over year

    ** ‘Inven’ – inventories

    ** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing

    ** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

    ** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

    ** ‘d’ – day

    ** ‘Y’ – year

    **govt – government

    Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
    Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong – slight negative global set-up

    • Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin
    • Yields: 30Y Bond +.64%  Currencies:  USA$ +.09% CAD -.04% YEN-.06%  BTC/USD -2.8%  Vix: 19.8
    • Stocks:  JBL+2%  EPS Impact of Senate mod to BBB: Solars lower; nuclear higher TMUS lower as Softbank block sells a large stake
    • News:  USA: Retail sales 830ET JP: No change in rates Germany: Economic sentiment improving  Israel-Iran: Ongoing, market reacted to Trump leaving G7 early. USA sent 2 carrier groups raising speculation of USA joining the party. Meanwhile China and Russia supporting Iran.
    • Overview:  USA indices pulled back but bouncing in NY premarket. USA retail sales -0.9%m/m vs -0.5% expected. Reaction: TLT higher, indices unchanged. MAG7: MSFT lower on dispute with OpenAI; NVDA slightly higher on an upgrade and rest slightly lower. Senate changes to BBB are moving stocks as a function of stimulus with solars losing and nuclear gaining. Senate pivoting from cutting Medicair Advantage is lifting OSCR health. Bitcoin lower combined with IWM underperformance is suggesting a risk-off tilt but major moves are not expected ahead of the Wed FOMC meeting. Large 0DTE positions at SPX6060 and SPX5990 set the goal posts for today and typically one of the levels are tested.  Middle east remains a concern with media reports conflicting but volatility not indicating major concerns. The large positive gamma positioning in the SPX will remain intact into Fri Opex and act as a rubber band into at least Wed so barring any major geopolitical events or tariff events, the index will likely be mean reverting i.e. can sell rips and buy dips.  

      Simple bull bear levels: SPY 600 QQQ 530 IWM 210
    • SPY 599.8 Resistance 601 604 605 Support 600 599 597  595 QQQ 531 Resistance 535 Support 530 529 525
      Daily Expected Move. SPX(6075-5991) SPY(606.9-598) QQQ(538-530)  IWM(212-209)

      Stocks to watch NVDA AMD SLV PLTR TMUS ENPH Speculative OSCO OKLO SMR
      Pre-800ET
      Indices USO SLV UNG TLT XLE GDX   ETHE IBIT IWM XLF XLY QQQ IGV SPY

    S&P500  AMD PLTR   ENPH FSLR TMUS AES

    Other OSCR PCT OKLO SMR NNE RDDT SRPT AMD ROKU BP XPEV PLTR SEDG DYN ENPH RDW FSLR TMUS QUBT

    Trade Idea: AMD

    AMD had a huge move Monday and continuing today. Option positioning indicates resistance at 130 and support at 125. Potential day trade idea on pullback to either 127 or 125. AMD broke the 200sma Mon, it’s been a dog and still has the cloud of export controls hanging over it.

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