.

Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend 

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government 

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong – slight negative global set-up

·       Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin

·       Yields: 30Y Bond -.33% Currencies: USA$-0.54%, CAD +.12%,YEN+.8%, BTC/USD+0.18% Vix: 20.35

·       Stocks: SAIC-5%, CPB+.32% EPS  NUE+10% CLF+25% STLD+11% CENX+17% AA-1.8% reaction to tarrifs
News: USA: Trump doubled steel and aluminum tariffs to 50%; ISM mfg PMI 10ET

·       Overview: USA indices pulled back overnight on latest tariff tweet with USA raising tariffs to 50% on steel and aluminum. Impact is bounces in USA listed names with AA an exception which has Canadian production. China and Europe are objecting and threatening retaliation which raises the temperature. MAG7 are lower with GOOGL leading to downside perhaps due to uncertainty from the AAPL/GOOGL trial. TSLA lower on poor European sales data. Semiconductors are weaker with rumors of more USA export action with NVDA on watch below 135. US$ is lower and providing strong lift to metals and oil, which is higher in spite of OPEC talking about production increases. Spec tech names which have been strong are pulling back which is potentially just first of the month flows or the start of a rotation. Premarket it’s commodities leading with caveat that some of the moves are outsized. SPY is in the middle of a recent trading range between 585 and 590 which can be used as reference levels. Take care at 10ET with PMI data but likely to not be consequential

Simple bull bear levels: SPY 590 QQQ 520 IWM 205

·       SPY 587 Resistance 589 590 595 Support 585 584 580, QQQ 516.8  Resistance 518 520 525 Support 515 510
Daily Expected Move. SPX(5961-5861), SPY(594-584), QQQ(524-514), IWM(207-203)

Stocks to watch NUE, FCX, OXY, BA, GOOGL, TSLA, NVDA Speculative MP HMY
Pre-800ET
Indices UNG, USO, XME, GDX, XLE, SLV, XBI, KWEB, XLB, ETHE, TLT, IBIT, ARKK, SMH, QQQ, XLF, UUP, XLY, XLK, XLC, ARKF

S&P500 NUE, FCX, MRNA, OXY, NEM, UNH, XOM, BA, GOOGL, SMCI, TSLA, NOW

Other VERA, BPMC, BNTX, MP, EQNR, HMY, SHEL, B, OSCR, NBIS, DKNG, ETHA, IONQ, STLA, LI, RDDT, QUBT, RIVN, TEM, MRVL, SOUN

Trade Idea: NVDA

NVDA gave back the earnings pop potentially due to a large number of calls which expired last week. 135 is the key level and above may see a return to 140 and below a move to 130. There is chatter of the US govt coming up with more export control rules which are potential negative catalyst but NVDA along with TSLA dominates option flow and retail can’t get enough of it so may brush off their losses from last week and try again. Today the premarket is setup for softness in tech so tred lightly on the long side as bounces may be transitory.