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Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend 

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government 

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong – neutral global set-up

·       Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin

·       Yields: 30Y Bond -.22%, Currencies: USA$ +.28%, CAD -.08%, YEN -.77%, BTC/USD +1.5%, Vix: 19.1

·       Stocks: FDX-5.6% GIS-3.2% EPS
News: USA: New home sales 10ET 5yr note  auction 13ET
Overview: USA indices are flat premarket with Nasi leading but Europe lower and Japan higher. USA equities are still being led by tech and the most speculative tech names with ARKK, Quantum, Bitcoin, and semis leading. FDX suspended guidance citing murky economic outlook, and GIS cut forecasts due to lower demand and higher costs; both are negative for the real economy. SPX, NDX are above the weekly expected moves and extended from value. SPX 0DTE positions at 6022 and 6055 are dominant, with one likely to be hit today. Volatility has fallen, which reduces the expected move of indices, which likely leads to a reduction in correlation and leads to dispersion trades where large stocks rising leads to others falling to compensate. The smaller speculative names are not in indices and hence free to move. MU is reporting after the close and will be a catalyst for the next move in the AI trade. Analysts are doing the regular chasing stocks with target prices, with NVDA, AMD, HOOD, COIN, RDDT targets raised. QS up more than 30% on news, indicating shorts covering.  So premarket looks like a chase in speculative names which can continue until it runs out of oxygen and the retail crowd looks for the exit door. MAG7 are outperforming with NVDA leading the pack, close to 150 level which is the next big level. With dispersion, a strong move in MAG7 will likely take the wind from the sales of other stocks, hence likely underperformance from the bulk of the S&P500
 
Simple bull bear levels: SPY 600, QQQ 530, IWM 210

·       SPY 608 Resistance 610 Support 607 605 604, QQQ 542 Resistance 545   Support 540 539 535
Daily Expected Move. SPX(6122-6062), SPY(610-604), QQQ(543-536),  IWM(216-213)

Stocks to watch NVDA, AMD, COIN, FDX, GIS Speculative RGC, PONY, RDDT, ASTS
Pre-800ET
Indices IBIT, ARKK, ARKF, QTUM, SMH, IPO, ARKF, QQQ, XLK, UNG, EFA, ETHE, FEZ, TLT, SLV, USO

S&P500 COIN, SMCI, AMD, FI, FDX, GIS 

Other RGC, PONY, FUTU, BULL, RDDT, PGY, IREN, NBIS, SYM, HOOD, CRDO, DLO, CRWV, AVAV, RDW, APLD, BTDR, QXO, ASTS, KYMR, BBVA, SMR, FLG, VNO, STM, NVO

Trade Idea: MU

MU reports after the close. MU has been on a mission, rapidly rising since the pause in tariffs. MU does have a lead in high-speed memory that is needed for NVDA devices. Expected move +/-10.5. IV 125% is elevated setting up diagonal or calendar trades or even iron condors. Option skew is flat, there is a lack of demand for downside puts, and traders are selling calls up to 135, which can lead to a larger move to the downside if guidance is not better than expected and potentially a squeeze if it exceeds expectations. Note the AI basket, including NVDA AVGO and related names like SMCI DELL will all move on the report.