Swing Trade Idea – June 3, 2025
Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:
** ‘div’ – dividend
** ‘m/m’ – month over month
** ‘y/y’ – year over year
** ‘Inven’ – inventories
** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing
** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative
** Underlined text – higher volume premarket
** ‘d’ – day
** ‘Y’ – year
**govt – government
Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong
Kong – neutral global set-up
· Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin
· Yields: 30Y Bond +0.7% Currencies: USA$+0.4%, CAD -0.18%, YEN-0.25%, BTC/USD+0.9% Vix: 19.7
· Stocks: NIO-2.8%,
OLLI-1.5%, DG+10%, FERG+12%, SIG+17.5% EPS CEG+10% signed a 20y
contract with META
News: USA: JOLTS data 10et ET China: Mfg data < 50 and
weaker than expected
· Overview: USA
indices pulled back overnight and now rising in NY premarket, similar to
Monday. JOLTs data at 10ET can potentially be market moving. US$ and 30y bonds
have bounced premarket which is weighing on Gold and Silver which had very
strong bounces Monday which took Silver above the weekly expected move. Call
buyers are setting up for a Silver breakout with caveat that last time it
failed. CEG deal with META is boosting the nuclear names premarket (NUKZ etf,
NNE, SMR, OKLO, CCJ, VST). Some buying in the other retail hot sectors of
Quantum and Bitcoin. DG in the dollar store space is higher on an
earnings beat despite tariff concerns and are raising prices to cope. Watch
DLTR FIVE. SIG is higher post earnings and a high short interest name
which can squeeze or crumble. Oil higher as shorts get squeezed and media talk
about Russia-Ukraine for the nth time. MAG7 are subdued with NVDA and TSLA as
usual bid up slightly bit GOOGL is down significantly with concerns that AAPL
may use Perplexity vs GOOGL. IWM is the leading USA index as benefits if yields
fall and combined with strength in speculative tech is a setup for a squeeze in
profitless/high valuation names. Market is trading on every tweet so need to be
expecting high intraday volatility. Keep your head on a swivel
Simple bull bear levels: SPY 590, QQQ 520, IWM 205
· SPY 592
Resistance 595 597 Support 590 589 587, QQQ 523 Resistance 525 527
Support 520 519 518
Daily Expected Move. SPX(5976-5895), SPY(597-589), QQQ(527-519), IWM(208-204
Stocks to watch NVDA, TSLA, DG, DLTR, CEG, VST, GOOGL, GDX Speculative
SIG,
CRDO, HOOD
Pre-800ET
Indices ETHE, XLU, FXI, IBIT, TLT, UUP, USO, KWEB, ARKK, GDX, SLV,
FEZ, EFA, GLD, XLF
S&P500 DG, CEG, VST
Other SIG, CRDO, DG, CEG, BNTX, APLD, HIM, NNE, OKLO, SMR, INOD, PINS, CCJ, OSCR, QUBT, HOOD, HMY, RIG, PONY
Trade Idea: GOOGL
GOOGL is a lagging MAG7 with concerns about ongoing USA govt trials and AAPL moving to perplexity. 165 is a large option position level and can be used as a bull/bear level with target 175 above and 160 below.
