.

Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend 

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government 

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong – neutral global set-up

·       Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin

·       Yields: 30Y Bond +0.0% Currencies: USA$+0.3% CAD -0.28% YEN-0.43% BTC/USD +2.1% Vix: 19.2

·       Stocks: LULU-20%, AVGO-2.5%, DOCU -12.7%, IOT-11%, TTAN-12.7%     EPS
 News: USA: Non farm payrolls 830ET CDN: Employment report 830ET

·       Overview: USA indices pulled back in the afternoon post the public Elon/Trump spat that seems forgotten. Non-farm payrolls are the big event and reported 139k vs 126k expected and 177k prior. Canadian employment 8.8k vs -10k expected. NFP is a sloppy number, but algos will take it as good. Implied vol is elevated ahead of NFP and the Elon/Trump spat and the unwind of IV is usually positive for markets as mechanical unwind of hedges leads to buying. Yesterday TSLA dropped biggly and is bouncing pre-NFP. Put heavy so again there can be a mechanical lift. TSLA is in many of the speculative ETFs held by retail so the TSLA drop also dropped many of the momo speculative names favored by retail e.g. PLTR Bitcoin names hence a TSLA bounce can lead to the spec names to bounce. On earnings front AVGO lower tough earnings were ok but moved too far too fast; LULU killed blaming tariffs vs demand for yoga pants. MAG7 lead by TSLA, AMZN, META; IWM outperforming as expect the most shorted names to outperform; bitcoin higher lifting usual suspects; bonds lower as jobs report giving hope that USA economy has a pulse. The market is now trading on tweets and one must be wary that Elon is launching nuclear attacks but independent of tweets, the IV drop post the NFP report and relief that AVGO was ok can mechanically lift the indices which are controlled by algos that just care about positioning and volatility. Pay attention to volatility today as a rise in markets and a rise in vol is a warning signal that everything isn’t as rosy as it appears.

·       Simple bull bear levels: SPY 595 QQQ 525, IWM 207

·       SPY 597.7 Resistance 600 Support 595 594 590, QQQ 529.1 Resistance 530 533 Support 525 524 520
Daily Expected Move. SPX(5998-5880) SPY(599-587) QQQ(531-519) IWM(211.5-205)

Stocks to watch TSLA, PLTR, AMZN, AVGO, LULU, DOCS Speculative RKLB, OSCR, CRCL
Pre-800ET
Indices IBIT, ARKK, MSOS, SLV, ARKQ/F, XLY, ETHE, KWEB, FXI, TLT

S&P500 TSLA, PLTR, SMCI, COIN, GOOGL, AMZN, AVGO, LULU

Other RKLB, OSCR, PLTR, RGTI, NVO, MSTR, PAAS, MARA, HOOD, DOCU, TTAN, IOT, APLD

Trade Idea: TSLA

TSLA is the stock to watch today. Bouncing after Thurs 14% drop on rumor that there is peace between Elon and Trump but TBD what happens next. There are now many traders underwater which can lead to selling (forced if levered). Can trade a bounce long > 300 or use dips for rebound trades. Large put position at 290 makes that a potential bounce level or acceleration below. TSLA has weakening sales and trades as a meme stock and anticipation that a June FSD will be successful but Elon will have a very hard time being successful if he stays at war with Trump so TSLA will be volatile and is extremely expensive if it is priced just as a car company. Note that there is a myriad of speculative stocks that trade in a basket with TSLA so as goes TSLA so goes the basket.