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Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend 

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government 

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong – neutral global set-up

·         Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin

·         Yields: 30Y Bond -0.1%  Currencies:  USA$-0.18% CAD +0.1% YEN+0.24%  BTC/USD +3.2%  Vix: 18.6

·         Stocks: LULU-20%, AVGO-2.5%, DOCU -12.7%, IOT-11%, TTAN-12.7%     EPS
 News:  USA:  China-USA trade talks China:Additional stimulus added. PPI and CPI negative y/y = deflation

·         Overview:  USA indices dipped in the Asian session and have risen back to Fri close in European and NYSE premarket sessions. Big event is China-USA trade discussions in London so potential for market moving tweets. Otherwise 0DTE continue to be in control. SPX is positive gamma so likely mean reverting with likely with pops < 6050 being sold and drops > 6000 being bought. MAG7 are mixed with NVDA, AMZN  leading to upside and TSLA to the downside. TSLA is put heavy with potential for continuation lower however the FSD trial June 12 can lead to speculative buying. AAPL WWD conference is today which can be market moving in either direction. Stock has been weak due to perceived poor AI strategy. Bitcoin has blasted higher over the weekend indicating casino is open. Absent tariff tape bonds last week saw the GS most shorted basket +11% despite weaker economic data. Hedge funds are still short-neutral which can provide a boost (remember 2020-2021?) With the casino open, speculative tech and small caps are bid and premarket there is strength in what I fondly call the Ponzi names i.e. Space (UFO ARKX), Quantum (Quantum), Nuclear (NUKZ), bitcoin (CRPT) and small caps. Elon’s battle with Trump is moving the space related names like RKLB ASTS with idea they can steal market share. IMO USA is not holding all the cards and potential that tacoman will need to relent on semi export controls in return for China shipping rare earth and in particular magnets which is disrupting some mfg already. Market is anticipating and bidding up semis and AMD in particular. USA semiconductor industry will be harmed if the export controls remain, China is just too big. Risk which is being glossed over is the bond market with a test to come Wed with CPI and a 10y bond auction. Until then party on like its 2021 or next tapebond hits:)

·         Simple bull bear levels: SPY 599 QQQ 530 IWM 213

·         SPY 600 Resistance 603 605  Support 599 595 594 QQQ 530.5  Resistance 534 535 Support 525 524
Daily Expected Move. SPX(6042-5959) SPY(603-595) QQQ(535-525) IWM(214-210)

Stocks to watch AMD, COIN, NVDA, AAPL, TSLA, HOOD, APP, Speculative RKLB, ACHR, IONQ, NBIS
Pre-800ET
Indices IBIT, ETHE, ARKX, KWEB, ARKQ/K/G, SLV, FXI, IWM,  UNG, TLT, US$

S&P500  COIN, MRL, AMD, SMCI, MU, INTC, TSLA

Other ACHR, KC, IONQ, QUBT, CCJ, RKLB, HUT, NBIS, APLD, ASTS, RGTI, GDS, LI, LUNR, OKLO,  SATS, HOOD, APP, TSLA

Trade Idea: IWM

IWM is an index with ½ of the companies profitless zombies and has lagged the large caps for fundamental reasons. Broke out Fri which suggests that shorts are capitulating and CTAs can increase exposure. May be a sign that the bull run is ending (or not). Upside target 215  round number, 200sma and then 221 high volume level. Note that this is a short term idea as unless the tariff situation and rising yields reverse,  these are a collection of companies that will be damaged the most. Can trade with calls or spreads for a high reward to risk trade. Caveat that lack of a positive spin on trade talks this week or a hot CPI may drive a dagger through the small caps.