Swing Trade Idea – July 16, 2025
Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:
** ‘div’ – dividend
** ‘m/m’ – month over month
** ‘y/y’ – year over year
** ‘Inven’ – inventories
** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing
** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative
** Underlined text – higher volume premarket
** ‘d’ – day
** ‘Y’ – year
**govt – government
Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China,
Hong Kong – neutral global set-up
· Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin
· Yields: 30Y Bond +.0% Currencies: USA$ -.04%, CAD -0.08%, YEN +0.11%, BTC/USD +2.15%, Vix: 19.55
· Stocks: JNJ+1.67%,
BAC+1.4%, GS+1.25%, PNC+.97%, ASML-7.1% EPS
Events: USA: PPI 830ET Industrial Production 915ET UK: CPI
+ CDN: Housing starts 815ET
· Equity: Global
stocks flattish ahead of PPI print. Bank earnings positive would be positive
for XLF and S&P500. QQQ is lagging with ASML lower guidance which is
weighing on other semi equipment companies: AMAT LRCX KLAC. MAG7 mixed led by
TSLA, GOOGL with AMZN lagging. NVDA is one to watch as reversed despite the
China news with 170 the level to pay attention to. Jensen is in Asia and hyping
up a storm and if the stock remains stuck, it’s a negative signal. Bitcoin
bouncing today after falling Tues with Genius Act and Clarity Act failing a
procedural vote. Trump is arm twisting GOP members to get them to change their
vote. If he is successful, likely positive for CRCL (stable coin) and bitcoin
in general (IBIT RIOT MSTR CLSK). Rare earth metal stocks are continuing the
squeeze premarket (MP USAR). RGTI (Quantum) is higher on a product
announcement. U is +7.4% on an upgrade and breaking out on the daily. *** PPI
2.3% y/y reaction: Indices higher with SPY moving to first target; TLT
higher*** SPX has moved above 6250. Watch 6260 as based on 0DTE is a potential
reversal or breakout level.
· Simple bull bear levels: SPY 622, QQQ 556, IWM 220
· SPY 622
Resistance 623 625 Support 621 620, QQQ 556 Resistance 560 Support 555
552.8 550
Daily Expected Move. SPX(6278-6209), SPY(625-619), QQQ(560.6-552.8),
IWM(221.3-216.3)
Stocks to watch NVDA, JNJ, IBIT, ASML, AMAT Speculative MP, USAR, U,
RGTI, KC
Pre-800ET
Indices ETHE, IBIT, UNG, SLV, GDX, IWM, ARKK, XLF, GLD, MSOS, USO,
SMH, KWEB, XLK, QQQ
S&P500 GPN, JNJ, EQT, CCL, BAC, MU, AMAT, LRCX, KLAC
Other SBET, METC, U, RGTI, RGC, USAR, MP, MARA, CLSK, RIOT, JOBY, MSTR, KC, BIDU, MRVL, SMR, LUNR, OKLO
CRPT
This is Crypto week and Trump is determined to get the Genius act approved by congress along with the Clarity act. CRPT holds a basket of crypto names and should bounce on the passage of Genius act this week. Clarity act may take more time but the arm twisting will be severe. CRCL is a beneficiary of the Genius act along with COIN. The usual suspects will benefit from the Clarity act like IBIT, MSTR, CLSK, HOOD etc but they will likely all move with the enthusiasm/short squeeze for all things crypto.
