Swing Trade Idea – July 17, 2025
Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:
** ‘div’ – dividend
** ‘m/m’ – month over month
** ‘y/y’ – year over year
** ‘Inven’ – inventories
** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing
** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative
** Underlined text – higher volume premarket
** ‘d’ – day
** ‘Y’ – year
**govt – government
Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong – neutral global
set-up
· Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin
· Yields: 30Y Bond -.03% Currencies: USA$ +.37%, CAD -0.5%, YEN -0.5%, BTC/USD -0.84%, Vix: 19.35
· Stocks: TSM+3.3%,
PEP+1.96%, GE+1%, USB-2.3%, UAL-1.3%, ABT-4.7% EPS ADM-6% Trump convinced KO to
use cane sugar instead of corn; CSX and NSC on
speculation UNP may acquire
Events: USA: Retail sales 830ET; Jobless claims 830ET; Stablecoin
vote 10ET
Equity: USA indices flat ahead of retail sales and jobless claims. TSM is a
catalyst for semi strength with earnings and revenue beats, but cautionary
guidance due to tariff uncertainty. No increase to capital spending is a
negative for ASML. NVDA, AVGO, AMD are slightly higher in sympathy. Bitcoin and
associated names down as the Genius act has still not passed but House is
voting today at 10ET. Meanwhile, ETHE is gaining strength, and SBET, which
wants to become the next MSTR, is up 10%. Speculation that UNP is looking for
an acquisition is boosting CSX and NSC. SRPT +29% as cutting 36% of staff, high
short interest name. SPX 0DTE has positive gamma 6250-6260 with potential of
6200 below 6250 as we saw Wed with the fire Powell dip and above 6260,
potential for 6300. *** Retail sales 0.6% m/m vs 0.1%; UE claims 221k;
Philly Fed 15.9 vs -0.1 Reaction: Equity unchanged; 10Y yield higher; US$
higher; GLD lower *** NFLX, AXP, IBKR, MMM, ALLY reporting after
the close and may see some action ahead of the print
· Simple bull bear levels: SPY 622 QQQ 556 IWM 220
· SPY
624 Resistance 625 628 Support 623 622 620 QQQ 558
Resistance 560 Support 557 555 553
Daily Expected Move. SPX(6300-6237) SPY(628-622) QQQ(560-553)
IWM(225-221)
Stocks to watch NVDA, TSM, CSX, NFLX, ABT, ASML Speculative
RKLB,
MP
Pre-800ET
Indices ETHE, ARKX, UUP, UNG, ARKQ, ARKF, USO, SMH, QQQ, GDX, IBIT,
GLD, EWC, XME, IWM, KWEB, XLV, TLT, XLB
S&P500 CSX, PEP, HPE, UAL, ABT, USB, MU, ADM, UAL
Other SRPT, SBET, LI, RGC, TOST, ZETA, RKLB, KTOS, U, QBTS, ARM, JOBY, MP, ABT, STWD, NVS, ASML, RGTI, HUT
NFLX
NFLX reports earnings after the close. Expected move is +/-73. NFLX has moved outside the expected move 8/11 reports. Volatility is very elevated this week versus subsequent weeks, which is supportive for a diagonal trade for direction. IV percentile 38% is low and may be underpricing the potential move. Look for streaming companies like DIS and ROKU to move on the NFLX report and potentially advertisers like TTD.
