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  • Swing Trade Idea – July 18, 2025

    Date:Jul 18, 2025

    Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

    ** ‘div’ – dividend

    ** ‘m/m’ – month over month

    ** ‘y/y’ – year over year

    ** ‘Inven’ – inventories

    ** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing

    ** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

    ** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

    ** ‘d’ – day

    ** ‘Y’ – year

    **govt – government

    Color Key: Positive Neutral Negative
    Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong neutral global set-up

    • Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin
    • Yields: 30Y Bond +.28%  Currencies:  USA$ -0.45% CAD +0.22% YEN +0.13%  BTC/USD +.05%  Vix: 19.33
    • Stocks: AXP+1.47% MMM+2.18%  IBKR+5.4%   NFLX-1.66%  EPS  CVX won arbitration decision over XOM for HESS purchase
    • Events: USA: Uof M consumer sentiment 10ET; Genius act and Clarity Act;  Trump unveiling AI action plan July 23
      Equity: Global indices are higher with USA indices mildly higher into today’s monthly Opex.    US$ lower is a catalyst for commodities higher.  MAG7 are higher led by GOOGL NVDA TSLA despite NFLX lower post earnings. IBKR has moved past the top of the expected move and may continue. Passage as expected of the Genius and Clarity act is leading to squeeze continuation of HOOD COIN but bitcoin is only marginally higher. ETHE+5.7%  is strong and GLXY+12% is a strong mover in the the crypto space.  Thurs the speculative / high short interest names were squeezed and there are signals that it is continuing in the premarket with caveat that a large percentage of calls in these names are expiring today which can lead to weakness later in the day or next week. China names are continuing higher with the theme of short covering and short term calls expiring today with BILI and BABA leading. SPX6300 AM options expire at the open which can lead to greater movement with 6340 upside and 6280 / 6250 as downside targets. QYLD covered call ETF closed the short call Thurs which aided QQQ moving higher but will be selling a new call today which can be negative. The Opex today is call heavy and can lead to increased volatility next week and potential weakness unless the thirst for buying call options continues and SPX 6400 is in play.
       
    • Simple bull bear levels: SPY 622 QQQ 556 IWM 220
    • SPY 628.5  Resistance 630 631.2  Support 628 627 626 625  QQQ 562  Resistance 565   Support 560 559 558
      Daily Expected Move. SPX(6328.7-6266)  SPY(631.2-624.9) QQQ(565.3-558.3)  IWM(226.4-221.5)

      Stocks to watch  IBKR NVDA GOOGL  NFLX SRPT    Speculative GLXY APLD BILI JOBY
      Pre-800ET
      Indices ETHE KWEB MSOS ARKF ARKK USO GDX SLV ARKG XLE US$ XLP

    S&P500  HESS CVX COIN MMM

    Other GLXY IBKR CRSP AI BILI APLD QS BABA GFI ZETA LUNR HOOD SOUN   SRPT JOBY ACHR GSK

    FUTU

    FUTU is a Hong Kong digitalized brokerage that is expanding to Japan and Malaysia. FUTU will benefit from improvement in Chinese stocks and the growth of crypto asset trading. Caveat stock is extended from the 5ema and a pullback would be a lower risk entry.

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