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  • Swing Trade Idea – July 23, 2025

    Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

    ** ‘div’ – dividend 

    ** ‘m/m’ – month over month

    ** ‘y/y’ – year over year

    ** ‘Inven’ – inventories

    ** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

    ** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

    ** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

    ** ‘d’ – day

    ** ‘Y’ – year

    **govt – government 

     

    Color Key: Positive Neutral Negative
    Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong positive global set-up

    ·       Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin

    ·       Yields: 30Y Bond -.30% Currencies: USA$ +.08%, CAD +0.17%, YEN +.14%, BTC/USD -0.6% Vix: 18.65

    ·       Stocks: GEV+3.5%, GD+2.8%, TMO+1.96%, LII-3.2%, KO+.09%,  TXN-10%, OTIS-6.4%, SAP-4%, T-3.8%, CNI-4.9%, ENPH-7.6%, FI-14%, NXPI-3% EPS  

    ·       Events: USA: Japan trade deal wih 15% tariff, lower than Trump threat
    Equity: Global indices higher led by Japan with a trade agreement with tariff rate 15%. USA indices are led by IWM, continuing from Tues where market rotated out of large cap momentum leaders into laggards. MAG7 are led by NVDA and AVGO are bouncing after hitting the bottom of the weekly expected move. GOOGL and TSLA report after the close. TXN beat estimates but guided lower dragging down ON STM and other similar semis not named NVDA and AVGO. IWM strength and meme stock strength is indicative of 2021 speculative fever independent of fundamentals that can continue until actual data is reported.  The speculative names leading premarket are in the nuclear, space, drones and quantum. GEV higher post earnings and deal between OKLO and LBRT should provide a boost to the power generation space, VST, CEG, NUKZ and XLU. China stocks continue to run with PONY higher on a robotaxi trial and BIDU continuing to move higher. No major economic news expected today. SPX hit the top of the daily expected move premarket and is short term extended with large positive gamma 6330-6350 may lead to muted upside and chop today. Meanwhile in meme land DNUT RKT KSS LCID BULL are competing with OPEN. Casino is open for now and high short interest are targets until the music stops.


    ·       Simple bull bear levels: SPY 630, QQQ 561, IWM 224

    ·       SPY 631.3 Resistance 631 633 Support 630 627 626, QQQ 562  Resistance 565 566 Support 561 560 558
    Daily Expected Move. SPX(6335-6283), SPY(631-626), QQQ(565-558),  IWM(225-221.7)

    Stocks to watch
    NVDA, GEV, APH, TXN Speculative SMR, RKT, PONY, GLXY, SBET, OPEN
    Pre-800ET
    Indices
    KWEB, EFA, ARKG, XLU, IWM, XBI, ARKX, ARKK, XLV, ARKQ, XBI, XLF, XLI, UNG, USO, IBIT, SMH, TLT

    S&P500  LW, GEV, APH, VST, MRNA, GM, CCL, NVDA, PLTR, FI, TXN, ENPH, MCHP, ON, T, VZ

    Other SMR, PGY, PONY, RKT, SONY, ACHR, GLXY, OKLO, RKLB, IONQ, JOBY, NVO, BIDU, QBTS, LUNR, STM, MARA, U, QS, KSS, OSCR, SRPT
    WallstBets RKT, DNUT, KSS, LCID, TLRY, RKLB, BULL




    PONY

    PONY is a highly speculative China autonomous driving company which announced a Gen7 robo taxi trial in Beijing. Large call position at 15 which can lead to a run to 16+. This type of name is very risky and predicated on the casino remaining open. OTM call IV is elevated which gives call verticals a better reward to risk and a way to trade high IV names.

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