Swing Trade Idea – July 23, 2025
Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:
** ‘div’ – dividend
** ‘m/m’ – month over month
** ‘y/y’ – year over year
** ‘Inven’ – inventories
** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing
** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative
** Underlined text – higher volume premarket
** ‘d’ – day
** ‘Y’ – year
**govt – government
Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong – positive global
set-up
· Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin
· Yields: 30Y Bond -.30% Currencies: USA$ +.08%, CAD +0.17%, YEN +.14%, BTC/USD -0.6% Vix: 18.65
· Stocks: GEV+3.5%, GD+2.8%, TMO+1.96%, LII-3.2%, KO+.09%, TXN-10%, OTIS-6.4%, SAP-4%, T-3.8%, CNI-4.9%, ENPH-7.6%, FI-14%, NXPI-3% EPS
· Events: USA:
Japan trade deal wih 15% tariff, lower than Trump threat
Equity: Global indices higher led by Japan with a trade agreement with
tariff rate 15%. USA indices are led by IWM, continuing from Tues where market
rotated out of large cap momentum leaders into laggards. MAG7 are led by NVDA
and AVGO are bouncing after hitting the bottom of the weekly expected move.
GOOGL and TSLA report after the close. TXN beat estimates but guided lower
dragging down ON STM and other similar semis not named NVDA and AVGO. IWM
strength and meme stock strength is indicative of 2021 speculative fever
independent of fundamentals that can continue until actual data is
reported. The speculative names leading premarket are in the nuclear,
space, drones and quantum. GEV higher post earnings and deal between OKLO and
LBRT should provide a boost to the power generation space, VST, CEG, NUKZ and
XLU. China stocks continue to run with PONY higher on a robotaxi trial and BIDU
continuing to move higher. No major economic news expected today. SPX hit the
top of the daily expected move premarket and is short term extended with large
positive gamma 6330-6350 may lead to muted upside and chop today. Meanwhile in
meme land DNUT RKT KSS LCID BULL are competing with OPEN. Casino is open for
now and high short interest are targets until the music stops.
· Simple bull bear levels: SPY 630, QQQ 561, IWM 224
· SPY 631.3
Resistance 631 633 Support 630 627 626, QQQ 562 Resistance 565 566
Support 561 560 558
Daily Expected Move. SPX(6335-6283), SPY(631-626), QQQ(565-558),
IWM(225-221.7)
Stocks to watch NVDA, GEV, APH, TXN Speculative SMR, RKT,
PONY, GLXY, SBET, OPEN
Pre-800ET
Indices KWEB, EFA, ARKG, XLU, IWM, XBI, ARKX, ARKK, XLV, ARKQ, XBI, XLF,
XLI, UNG, USO, IBIT, SMH, TLT
S&P500 LW, GEV, APH, VST, MRNA, GM, CCL, NVDA, PLTR, FI, TXN, ENPH, MCHP, ON, T, VZ
Other SMR, PGY,
PONY, RKT, SONY, ACHR, GLXY, OKLO, RKLB, IONQ, JOBY, NVO, BIDU, QBTS, LUNR, STM, MARA, U,
QS, KSS, OSCR, SRPT
WallstBets RKT, DNUT, KSS, LCID, TLRY, RKLB, BULL
PONY
PONY is a highly speculative China autonomous driving company which announced a Gen7 robo taxi trial in Beijing. Large call position at 15 which can lead to a run to 16+. This type of name is very risky and predicated on the casino remaining open. OTM call IV is elevated which gives call verticals a better reward to risk and a way to trade high IV names.
