Swing Trade Idea – July 25, 2025
Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:
** ‘div’ – dividend
** ‘m/m’ – month over month
** ‘y/y’ – year over year
** ‘Inven’ – inventories
** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing
** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative
** Underlined text – higher volume premarket
** ‘d’ – day
** ‘Y’ – year
**govt – government
Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China,
Hong Kong – slight negative global set-up
· Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin
· Yields: 30Y Bond -.06% Currencies: USA$ +.38%, CAD -0.29%, YEN-.5%, BTC/USD -2.1% Vix: 18.05
· Stocks: DECK+12%, AON+2.6%, NDAQ+1.5%, NEM+1.6%, EW+8%, COUR+26%, INTC-8.6%, CHTR-5.8%, CNC-11% EPS ASTS-8.4% debt offering
· Events: USA:
Durable goods 830ET
Equity: USA indices are flat but ROW is lower with US$ bouncing pressuring
commodities ex-oil. MAG7 are led by TSLA and MSFT with NVDA lagging. TSLA had
$2B of buying at the close at the 302-305 level and 300 strike puts expiring
today can provide a lift. Bitcoin lower is impacting associated names (MSTR,
MARA, RIOT, CRCL, COIN) and is below the expected daily move hence look for a
bounce or an even larger move to the downside. Earnings: DECK, COUR are being
squeezed to the upside, look for continuation or reversal. INTC, CNC, CHTR can
be watched for continuation or bounce. INTC 20 is a level to watch for
reaction. Memes: IONQ, PONY, AEO are green; ASTS is lower on an offering, watch
for continuation lower or the monkeys to step in. Nuclear/power names OKLO, SMR
are lower premarket after a Thurs pop. SPX has a large call position at 6400
which is a potential target with risk that if they start to sell it will
pressure the market lower. Some support 6375-6365 with potential for 6350
below. Volatility is very low heading into next week with AAPL, AMZN, MSFT
reporting along with Fed meeting and Aug 1 tariff deadline. In general, calls
are more expensive than puts as the long trade is crowded, so can consider some
protection in case there is a stumble.
· Simple bull bear levels: SPY 630, QQQ 565, IWM 225
· SPY 634.7
Resistance 637.7 Support 633.3 630, QQQ 565.5 Resistance 567.5 570 Support 565
560
Daily Expected Move. SPX(6389-6337), SPY(637-632), QQQ(568-562),
IWM(225-222)
Stocks to watch TSLA, AMD, DECK, NEM, INTC, CHTR, IBIT, COIN Speculative
PONY,
OKLO,
RIOT
Pre-800ET
Indices UNG, US$, XRT, USO, IWM, IBIT, KWEB, SLV, GLD, EFA, GDX, SMH,
ARKG, ETHE
S&P500 DECK, NEM, SCHW, AMD, PARA, CNC, INTC, CMCSA, MOH, PFE, COIN, UNH
Other VCYT, VRT,
IRDM, IONQ, PONY, AEO, AI, DRS, FLS, SRPT, SNV, SMR, OSCR, OKLO, CLSK,
RIOT, ASML, MARA, BULL, MSTR
WallstBets INTC, TSLA, RKT, NVDA, BULL, ASTS, IOVA,
DNUT, AEO, KSS, WEN
TSLA
TSLA dropped on earnings but flows can lead to a bounce independent of weak sales. Large put positions at 300 are expiring and there was $2B of buying at the close at 302-305. Can consider long > 305 with targets 310+. Expected daily move upside target 317 and large positive gamma 310, 315, 320, potential resistance.
