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  • Swing Trade Idea – July 25, 2025

    Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

    ** ‘div’ – dividend 

    ** ‘m/m’ – month over month

    ** ‘y/y’ – year over year

    ** ‘Inven’ – inventories

    ** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

    ** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

    ** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

    ** ‘d’ – day

    ** ‘Y’ – year

    **govt – government 

     

    Color Key: Positive Neutral Negative
    Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong slight negative global set-up

    ·       Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin

    ·       Yields: 30Y Bond -.06% Currencies: USA$ +.38%, CAD -0.29%, YEN-.5%, BTC/USD -2.1% Vix: 18.05

    ·       Stocks: DECK+12%, AON+2.6%, NDAQ+1.5%, NEM+1.6%, EW+8%, COUR+26%, INTC-8.6%, CHTR-5.8%, CNC-11% EPS ASTS-8.4% debt offering  

    ·       Events: USA: Durable goods 830ET 
    Equity
    : USA indices are flat but ROW is lower with US$ bouncing pressuring commodities ex-oil. MAG7 are led by TSLA and MSFT with NVDA lagging. TSLA had $2B of buying at the close at the 302-305 level and 300 strike puts expiring today can provide a lift. Bitcoin lower is impacting associated names (MSTR, MARA, RIOT, CRCL, COIN) and is below the expected daily move hence look for a bounce or an even larger move to the downside. Earnings: DECK, COUR are being squeezed to the upside, look for continuation or reversal. INTC, CNC, CHTR can be watched for continuation or bounce. INTC 20 is a level to watch for reaction. Memes: IONQ, PONY, AEO are green; ASTS is lower on an offering, watch for continuation lower or the monkeys to step in. Nuclear/power names OKLO, SMR are lower premarket after a Thurs pop. SPX has a large call position at 6400 which is a potential target with risk that if they start to sell it will pressure the market lower. Some support 6375-6365 with potential for 6350 below. Volatility is very low heading into next week with AAPL, AMZN, MSFT reporting along with Fed meeting and Aug 1 tariff deadline. In general, calls are more expensive than puts as the long trade is crowded, so can consider some protection in case there is a stumble.


    ·       Simple bull bear levels: SPY 630, QQQ 565, IWM 225

    ·       SPY 634.7 Resistance 637.7 Support 633.3 630, QQQ 565.5 Resistance 567.5 570 Support 565 560
    Daily Expected Move. SPX(6389-6337), SPY(637-632), QQQ(568-562),  IWM(225-222)

    Stocks to watch
    TSLA, AMD, DECK, NEM, INTC, CHTR, IBIT, COIN   Speculative PONY, OKLO, RIOT
    Pre-800ET
    Indices
    UNG, US$, XRT, USO, IWM, IBIT, KWEB, SLV, GLD, EFA, GDX, SMH, ARKG, ETHE

    S&P500 DECK, NEM, SCHW, AMD, PARA, CNC, INTC, CMCSA, MOH, PFE, COIN, UNH

    Other VCYT, VRT, IRDM, IONQ, PONY, AEO, AI, DRS, FLS, SRPT, SNV, SMR, OSCR, OKLO, CLSK, RIOT, ASML, MARA, BULL, MSTR
    WallstBets INTC, TSLA, RKT, NVDA, BULL, ASTS, IOVA, DNUT, AEO, KSS, WEN




    TSLA

    TSLA dropped on earnings but flows can lead to a bounce independent of weak sales. Large put positions at 300 are expiring and there was $2B of buying at the close at 302-305. Can consider long > 305 with targets 310+. Expected daily move upside target 317 and large positive gamma 310, 315, 320, potential resistance.

     

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