Swing Trade Idea – July 28, 2025
Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:
** ‘div’ – dividend
** ‘m/m’ – month over month
** ‘y/y’ – year over year
** ‘Inven’ – inventories
** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing
** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative
** Underlined text – higher volume premarket
** ‘d’ – day
** ‘Y’ – year
**govt – government
Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong – slight positive global set-up
· Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin
· Yields: 30Y Bond -.19% Currencies: USA$ +.67% CAD -0.16% YEN-.58% BTC/USD +1.5% Vix: 17.45
· Stocks: NKE+4% MARA+2.9% TXN+1.4% OKLO+1.9% upgrade CSCO-1.3% downgrade
·
Events: USA: USA Europe framework for a trade deal. Details need
to be resolved and country parliaments need to pass and individual companies
would need to implement provisions for buying USA products and investing in the
USA.
Equity: USA indices bounced to the top of the daily expected move overnight
with the announcement of the European trade discussions and the 90d extension
for China talk. Since the European open, indices are pulling back and
currently in the gap. US$ is significantly higher which is usually a negative
for commodities and foreign equity. No major econ data today but the week is
packed with economic data, CB rate decisions and MAG7 earnings, and may see
volatility rise. MAG7 is positive with TSLA AMZN NVDA with META MSFT and AMZN
reporting this week. Semis are strong with AMD continuing to surge and QCOM on
watch ahead of earnings. Bitcoin bounced over the weekend and lifted related
names like MARA MSTR GLXY HOOD with the caveat that IBIT has already bounced to
the top of the daily expected move. HOOD and MSTR are reporting this week
which can lead to buying ahead of the report. Speculative names are bid
premarket which suggests potential for a risk-on day should it continue. SPX
0DTE supports 6400 with < 6390 a bear level and 6460 resistance.
· Simple bull bear levels: SPY 637 QQQ 567 IWM 225
·
SPY 638 Resistance 640 641 Support 637 635 QQQ
568 Resistance 570 Support 567 566 565 563
Daily Expected Move. SPX(6416-6361) SPY(640-634) QQQ(569-563)
IWM(226-222)
Stocks to watch TSLA AMD AMZN NKE CSCO Speculative
PONY
SBET MARA UUUU
Pre-800ET
Indices ETHE IBIT USO ARKK ARKX ARKQ ARKG SMH UUP $USD GDX EFA UNG
TLT KWEB
S&P500 NKE TSLA SMCI PLTR AMD CSCO
Other PONY WRD SBET
ASML GLXY UUUU MARA LUNR RGTI ACHR CLSK JOBY OKLO MRVL QS STLA RIO
NVO TSM
WallstBets HOOD PLTR BULL NVDA UNH TSLA MSTR GOOGL RKT
SMCI UUUU
AMZN
AMZN reports earnings Thur after the close and leading MAG7 names that are reporting this week. Expected move for the week is +/-11.9 with largest call open interest 240. Can consider long above 232.5 with target 235 or pullback to VWAP for a potential run into earnings.
