Swing Trade Idea – July 29, 2025
Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:
** ‘div’ – dividend
** ‘m/m’ – month over month
** ‘y/y’ – year over year
** ‘Inven’ – inventories
** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing
** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative
** Underlined text – higher volume premarket
** ‘d’ – day
** ‘Y’ – year
**govt – government
Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong – positive global set-up
· Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin
· Yields: 30Y Bond +.33% Currencies: USA$ +.19%, CAD -0.19%, YEN-.01%, BTC/USD +0.3%, Vix: 17.1
· Stocks:UNH-3.8%, MRK-3.2%, SPOT-3.7%, RCL-5.4%, UPS-4.5%, PYPL-3.5%, CARR-4.7%, SWK-6.7%, PG+.23%, SOFI+6%, GLW+3.9%, AZN+2.8%, CLS+11.6%, EPS NVO-18.7% profit warning due compounders
·
Events: USA: JOLTS 10ET
Equity: Global indices are higher premarket with JOLT 10ET today ahead of
FOMC Wed and major earnings. Correlation is falling with S&P
controlled by a handful of large cap stocks. Semis and explicitly NVDA and AMD
are moving higher again premarket with meme that Trump is tacoing on export
restrictions despite objection from some USA agencies. Europe news that they
will buy $40B of AI chips which IMO is a continuation of theatre but algos move
on news. ON semi is a semi to watch today with the golden news of a deal
with NVDA for high voltage chips. Earnings movers are a mixed bag with SOFI
above the upper expected move; CLS strong mover (AI baby!); UNH lower with
lower guidance; UPS not providing guidance; CARR lower after stock has
run up as part of the datacenter trade. SPX0DTE 6390 is a good pivot
level to watch with a large put position. MAG7 are led by NVDA with muted
activity otherwise. META, MSFT, AAPL, AMZN are on tap this week and
should look for moves on the open, yesterday TSLA and META had large moves on
the open.
Simple bull bear levels: SPY 637, QQQ 567, IWM 225,
·
SPY 638 Resistance 640 641 Support 637 635; QQQ
570.4 Resistance 575 Support 570 566 565
Daily Expected Move. SPX(6415-6364); SPY(639.5-634);
QQQ(570.9-565); IWM(225.8-222.4)
Stocks to watch NVDA, AMD, ON, CLS, SOFI, UNH, RCL, PYPL, UPS, Speculative
SRPT,
WGS, SMCI
Pre-800ET
Indices SMH, UNG, ETHE, XLK, QQQ, TLT, IGV, IWM, XBI, IBIT, XLV, USO,
S&P500 ON, BA, NVDA, AMD, SMCI, RCL, UPS, MRK, UNH, NCLH, CCL, UBER, NSC, PYPL
Other SRPT, WGS,
GTLS, APLS, AMKR, SOFI, LI, QBTS, AZN, IONQ, NVO, WHR,
SPOT, CELC, QS, HIMS, APLD, CUK, IREN
WallstBets UNH, NVDA, AMD, SOFI, WEN, SMCI
NVO
NVO is lower with revenue guidance cut citing competition from compounders (HIMS) which are selling despite NVO patents. There are few puts <50 which suggest that a bottom could be forming. Implied volatility will be elevated which may provide an opportunity for put sellers who are willing to take on the risk of assignment. Caveat that institutional selling can pressure that stock for a few days/weeks. LLY and HIMS will be lower in sympathy. NVO is litigating against HIMS and a positive result (TBD) would be positive for LLY and HIMS.
