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  • Swing Trade Idea – July 29, 2025

    Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

    ** ‘div’ – dividend 

    ** ‘m/m’ – month over month

    ** ‘y/y’ – year over year

    ** ‘Inven’ – inventories

    ** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

    ** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

    ** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

    ** ‘d’ – day

    ** ‘Y’ – year

    **govt – government 

     

    Color Key: Positive Neutral Negative

    Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong positive global set-up

    ·         Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin

    ·         Yields: 30Y Bond +.33%  Currencies:  USA$ +.19%, CAD -0.19%, YEN-.01%,  BTC/USD +0.3%,  Vix: 17.1

    ·         Stocks:UNH-3.8%, MRK-3.2%, SPOT-3.7%, RCL-5.4%, UPS-4.5%, PYPL-3.5%, CARR-4.7%, SWK-6.7%,  PG+.23%, SOFI+6%, GLW+3.9%, AZN+2.8%, CLS+11.6%, EPS NVO-18.7% profit warning due compounders

    ·         Events: USA: JOLTS 10ET
    Equity
    : Global indices are higher premarket with JOLT 10ET today ahead of FOMC Wed and major earnings. Correlation is falling  with S&P controlled by a handful of large cap stocks. Semis and explicitly NVDA and AMD are moving higher again premarket with meme that Trump is tacoing on export restrictions despite objection from some USA agencies. Europe news that they will buy $40B of AI chips which IMO is a continuation of theatre but algos move on news.  ON semi is a semi to watch today with the golden news of a deal with NVDA for high voltage chips. Earnings movers are a mixed bag with SOFI above the upper expected move; CLS strong mover (AI baby!); UNH lower with lower guidance;  UPS not providing guidance; CARR lower after stock has run up as part of the datacenter trade.  SPX0DTE 6390 is a good pivot level to watch with a large put position.  MAG7 are led by NVDA with muted activity otherwise.  META, MSFT, AAPL, AMZN are on tap this week and should look for moves on the open, yesterday TSLA and META had large moves on the open.

    Simple bull bear levels: SPY 637, QQQ 567, IWM 225,

    ·         SPY 638  Resistance 640 641 Support 637 635;  QQQ 570.4  Resistance 575    Support 570 566 565
    Daily Expected Move. SPX(6415-6364);  SPY(639.5-634); QQQ(570.9-565);  IWM(225.8-222.4)

    Stocks to watch
    NVDA, AMD, ON, CLS, SOFI, UNH, RCL, PYPL, UPS,   Speculative SRPT, WGS, SMCI
    Pre-800ET
    Indices
    SMH, UNG, ETHE, XLK, QQQ, TLT, IGV, IWM, XBI, IBIT, XLV, USO,

    S&P500 ON, BA, NVDA, AMD, SMCI, RCL, UPS, MRK, UNH, NCLH, CCL, UBER, NSC, PYPL

    Other SRPT, WGS, GTLS, APLS, AMKR, SOFI, LI, QBTS, AZN, IONQ,   NVO, WHR, SPOT, CELC, QS, HIMS, APLD, CUK, IREN
    WallstBets UNH, NVDA, AMD, SOFI, WEN, SMCI 



    NVO

    NVO is lower with revenue guidance cut citing competition from compounders (HIMS) which are selling despite NVO patents. There are few puts <50 which suggest that a bottom could be forming. Implied volatility will be elevated which may provide an opportunity for put sellers who are willing to take on the risk of assignment. Caveat that institutional selling can pressure that stock for a few days/weeks. LLY and HIMS will be lower in sympathy. NVO is litigating against HIMS and a positive result (TBD) would be positive for LLY and HIMS.

     

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