.

Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend 

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government 

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative

Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong – neutral global set-up

·         Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin

·         Yields: 30Y Bond +.33%  Currencies:  USA$ +.19%, CAD -0.19%, YEN-.01%,  BTC/USD +0.3%,  Vix: 17.1

·         Stocks:HSBC-2.5%, SAN-2.3%, TT-3.6%, RIO-1.3%, ODFL-4.4%, CHKP-5%, STX-5.4%, V -2.3%,   SBUX+5%, GSK+0.6%, HSY+1%, HUM+7%, GNRC+3%, WING+10%,  ETSY+4%, VFC+18%, HOG+7%,  EPS SOFI-8% 71.9M share offering at 20.85 per share,  MRVL+8.8% collab with Korean AI company and potential high volume MSFT opportunity BIOTECH higher on resignation of FDA head

·         Events: USA: ADP Jobs 815ET; GDP 830ET FOMC 14ET CDN: BOC rate decision 945ET EUR: German GDP -0.1% q/q Europe 0.1% q/q
Equity: Global indices are flattish into a major economic data day with major earnings releases AMC.  Premarket the ADP jobs and preliminary GDP will be released and FOMC statement in the afternoon. MSFT and META earnings releases after the close will be market moving.  MAG7 are mixed with META leading, AAPL lagging and NVDA in between. Notable earnings outside expected move: WING+20% squeeze; HOG+13.7% HUM+8.3% TT-6.4%. SOFI-7% is lower on a share offering which sets a price level to watch. MRVL +8.4% with AI partnership and potential for high volume MSFT future revenue catalyst.  Implied volatility is slightly elevated into today and end of week due to uncertainty but still relatively low.  Reaction to Powell not hawkish surprising and earnings acceptable can be a pop with the unwind in protection. Alternative (less likely) is a sharp drop given the complacency of the market and propensity to sell vol expecting it to fall. Aug15 SPX 6450- 6500 calls are “cheap” upside trade for a pop and 6200 puts if need to hedge against the less likely but potential drop. A major miss or Capex cut by a hyperscaler or a very hawkish FED are the potential catalysts for a major drop but SPX would need to break 6300 to open the trap door.
SPY 635.8  Resistance 640  Support 635 634 630  QQQ 568.3  Resistance 570 572    Support 566 565 562 560
Daily Expected Move. SPX(6410-6332)  SPY(639-631) QQQ(572-562)  IWM(225-220)

Stocks to watch SBUX MRVL HOG META NVDA  V STX SOFI   Speculative WING LC  
Pre-800ET
Indices XBI ARKG MSOS SMH IWM ARKK QQQ  UNG USO SLV ETHE KWEB XLE

S&P500  SBUX SMCI PYPL   STX

Other LC VFC SRPT WING MRVL HOG TER SBUX VRT ETSY MARA RGTI QBTS SMCI EDU SOFI STX NVO TAL SBET XPEV LI BP
WallstBets UNH SOFI GLD AMD NVDA OOD META SPOT FIG BULL DNUT 

MRVL

MRVL has bounced on an AI partnership with a Korean firm and potential for MSFT to be moving forward with a MRVL AI chip. MRVL has moved above the 80 call wall which can lead to a squeeze higher and technically has closed a gap and testing the 200sma.  One can look for retracement > 80 or a move above the 200sma for a long with 85, 90, 95 etc as upside targets. MRVL has been a laggard company and traditionally not been a player in the large complex chip space so IF MSFT business is captured it would be significant. Caveat Emptor