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Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend 

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government 

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative

Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong – neutral global set-up

·         Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin

·         Yields: 30Y Bond +.44%  Currencies:  USA$ -.02%, CAD -0.18%, YEN-.42%,  BTC/USD +1.45%,  Vix: 17.35

·         Stocks:BUD-10%, SNY-4.7%, IP-7%, BLDR-8.8%, QCOM-5.8%, CFLT-30%, SHAK-10%, ARM-7%, HOOD-1.7%, MSFT+8.4%, META+11.7%, CVS+7%, APLD+22%, RBLX+18%, CVNA+16% EPS
Events: USA: PCE 830ET; CDN:GDP830ET
Equity: Global equities are weak ex-USA with S&P500 and Nas100 above the daily expected move after multi-standard deviation moves by META and MSFT. SPY hit the bottom of the daily expected move Wed post Powell before bouncing as 0DTE puts were closed.  Powell was perceived as hawkish which led to a higher US$ and reduced rate cut expectations. Higher US$ is negative for commodities and foreign equities. Copper is -22% as Trump taco’d on 50% tariff on refined copper which is killing the longs. A “deal” was signed with Korea with tariff 15% and $350B tribute to be paid. MSFT move was 2.5x expected and META 2x with earnings beat and lifting the usual AI suspects NVDA AMD ORCL. MSFT CEO comment that gaining cloud market share is pressuring GOOGL.  Often moves by large market caps will suck capital from other stocks. MSFT CEO also mentioned quantum which gives an excuse to bid them higher (QTUM). All isn’t bright in semi land with QCOM and ARM lower and weakness in semi equipment names. Speculative squeeze names APLD CVNA RBLX TMDX CRWV SHAK. SPX 6430 is a level to watch with potential for a squeeze higher above to 6450. There is still a vol premium into AMZN AAPL earnings and NFP Fri so benign NFP and OK earnings can move SPX to 6500 by Aug Opex.  Powell is powerless vs AI wagon!


SPY 640.2  Resistance 642.8 645  Support 640 638.4 635  QQQ 575.6  Resistance 577 580    Support 575 570
Daily Expected Move. SPX(6403-6323)  SPY(638-630) QQQ(573-563)  IWM(224-219)

Stocks to watch META, MSFT, NVDA, EBAY, NCLH, QCOM  Speculative APLD, CVNA  
Pre-800ET
Indices ETHE, XLC, XLK, IBIT, QQQ, ARKF, GLD, SPY, IGV, QTUM, ARKK, GDX, SLV, USO, XLE, KRE, XLB, IWM, SMH

S&P500  EBAY, META, NCLH, MSFT, CVS, WDC, CMCSA, ABBV, BMY, SMCI, COIN, AMD, NVDA, ORCL, ALGN, PARA, LRCX, QCOM, AMAT, DDOG, LLY, UNH

Other APLD, ALHC, TMDX, CVNA, CRWV, TAL, RBLX, BBVA, KC, RGTI, QUBT, IREN, QBTS, RDDT, CFLT, BUD, SHAK, BTU, ARM, ASML, HOOD, STM, AZN, VFC
WallstBets NVDA, META, MSFT, AAPL, CVNA, HOOD, RDDT, APLD, RBLX

AMZN

AMZN reports after the close. Expected move +/- 11.4. AWS revenue will be in spotlight after MSFT CEO comment that Azure is gaining market share from competitors. Impact of China tariffs will also be a focus. Large call position at 240  can act as resistance or lead to an outside move to 245/250. Below 220 can lead to a larger move to 210. Butterflies are a trading idea with high reward to risk with Fri expiration. Can offset the fly to remove the risk of a larger than expected move ala META and MSFT.