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Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend 

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government 

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative

Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong – slight negative set-up

·         Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin

·         Yields: 30Y Bond +0.05%  Currencies:  USA$ -0.25% CAD +0.23% YEN+0.27%  BTC/USD+0.69%  Vix: 16.75

·         Stocks: AFRM+15% ULTA+3% ESTC+15% BABA+3.8% MRVL-13% DELL-6% EPS  
Events: USA: PCE 830ET; Consumer confidence 10ET CDN: GDP
Equity: USA and global indices are generally lower ahead of the USA PCE report which is expected to be inline with expectations. US$ and long yields are higher which is generally negative for equities and commodities. Since the end of the month, rebalancing flows may add noise today. With a long weekend ahead, volatility usually falls which is supportive to equity markets with proviso that a hot PCE doesn’t shake the complacent low volume markets. SPX < 6450 would open the door to 6400 but otherwise monkeys will likely continue the vol selling which can push the zombie market into the  6500-6505 resistance. MAG7 are generally weaker after a strong week. NVDA is leading to the downside on news that BABA has an AI inference chip compatible with NVDA software which simplifies developers to switch. BABA trading higher with an earnings miss but maybe lifted by the AI chip news. USA is yet again halting the de minimis tariff exemption which allows small packages to be duty free. This is negative for companies like PDD and small importers operating on AMZN and highlights the chaotic nature of tariff rules. CAT is lower, citing the impact of tariffs. AFRM higher with earnings beat, above the expected move despite middling guidance. DELL and MRVL lower on lower guidance and ULTA higher on higher guidance. Bitcoin lower weighing on usual suspects like MSTR, SBET, MARA.  Ponzis continue to rotate with quantum lower but a bid to some of the nuclear names like UEC, UUUU.  *** USA Core PCE 2.9% inline; CDN GDP Q/Q -0.1% vs 0.1%  Reaction: SPY, QQQ higher which is a mechanical reaction as did not surprise higher. TLT lower and US$ higher. Pay attention at 10ET with the consumer sentiment data.

SPY 647 with Resistance at 648.6 and 650 with Support at 646 and 645  QQQ 574 with Resistance at 575, 577, and 580 with Support at 573, 571, and 570
Daily Expected Move. SPX(6536-6467)  SPY(652-645) QQQ(581-573)  IWM(238-234)

Stocks to watch AFRM, ULTA, AMBA, BABA, NVDA, AMD, PLTR, DELL  Speculative IREN, UUUU,  IONQ, MARA
Pre-800ET
Indices UNG, KWEB, MSOS, $DXY, ETHE, IBIT, SMH, SLV, MAGS, EFA, QQQ, XLK, TLT, GDX, ARKK

S&P500  DELL, SMCI, AMD, MU, PLTR, NVDA

Other AFRM, ESTC, IREN, CELH, UEC, UUUU, BABA, MRVL, DELL, CHA, SBET, IONQ, MARA, QUBT, RIOT, SMR, AMD, SMR, SMCI, TSM

BABA

Poor earnings report but they announced an AI chip compatible with NVDA software. Potential move to 130 and higher based on call positioning. HK listed stocks tend to pullback in the morning so one can look for a pullback > 125 for long. Prior high 128.8 is a level to watch to determine if sellers are still active. BTW China in-house semi tech is substantially < Taiwan due to USA export controls so take the inference chip announcement with a pinch of salt.