Swing Trade Ideas – August 4, 2025
Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:
** ‘div’ – dividend
** ‘m/m’ – month over month
** ‘y/y’ – year over year
** ‘Inven’ – inventories
** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing
** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative
** Underlined text – higher volume premarket
** ‘d’ – day
** ‘Y’ – year
**govt – government
Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong – positive global set-up
· Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin
· Yields: 30Y Bond -0.3% Currencies: USA$ -0.35%, CAD +0.28%, YEN+.2%, BTC/USD +1.15%, Vix: 19.2
·
Stocks:BRK/B -0.6%, W+14%, TSN+3%, IDXX+8.3%, EPS
Events: USA: CDN: market closed UK: market
closed
Equity: Global indices higher premarket with SPY and QQQ nearing
the top of the daily expected move. IV rose Friday with SPX 6200-6150 strike
puts bought after the NFP negative jobs revisions. If SPX > 6260 target 6300
and below 6260 potential for 6200. Elevated IV is the catalyst for the
premarket bounce and can lead to continuation but would monitor at the upper
daily expected move for rejection or continuation. MAG7are led by TSLA and AMZN
with all positive. Pavlovian buying ahead of earnings reports is active with
AMD, PLTR, HIMS, SMCI names to watch. JOBY is higher premarket with story that
may be buying BLDE. Rare earth metals names USAR MP are higher on concerns of
lower China exports. W higher on earnings should lift other furniture
retailers. TSN and IDXX are positive earnings movers. General premarket risk-on
with bitcoin, ARK etfs outperforming which is indicative that retail buyers are
still in buy the dip mode after taking losses Fri. In today’s trading need to
be prepared for continuation or a resumption in selling with ARKK close to the
top of the daily expected move premarket. US$ pulling back after a pop last
week is positive for metals and equities in general and important to watch
today.
SPY 625.1 Resistance 626 630 Support 620; QQQ 558 Resistance
560 562 565 Support 557 555
Daily Expected Move. SPX(6282-6194); SPY(626-617); QQQ(560-547);
IWM(218-212)
Stocks to watch TSLA, AMZN, PLTR, SMCI, USO, Speculative USAR, JOBY,
FIG
Pre-800ET
Indices KWEB, ARKX, ETHE, ARKK, ARKQ, ARKF, IBIT, USO, UNG,
$USD,
S&P500 SMCI, TSLA, PLTR, AMD, COIN, MRNA, CCL, MU, AMZN, AVGO, INTC, META
Other SCS, W,
USAR, JOBY, SBET, SPOT, HMY, AEO, QBTS, SMR, PONY, RGTI, XPEV, SMCI, YMM
WallStBets FIG, UNH, AMZN, RDDT, WEN, NVO, UNH, PLTR,
BULL, AMD, NVDA, AMZN, LION, AAPL, FUBO, TMC
TMC
TMC is a very speculative company that is mining metals from poly metric nodules. It’s moving premarket with a release of reserves. Potential squeeze name with call positions at 6 and 7. Pullbacks > 6 may be buyable and call wall at 7 may lead to a squeeze higher to 8. Very speculative so caveat emptor with this name. Rare earth names MP USAR are also moving today and though risky are less so than TMC.
