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  • Swing Trade Ideas – August 7, 2025

    Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

    ** ‘div’ – dividend 

    ** ‘m/m’ – month over month

    ** ‘y/y’ – year over year

    ** ‘Inven’ – inventories

    ** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

    ** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

    ** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

    ** ‘d’ – day

    ** ‘Y’ – year

    **govt – government 

     

    Color Key: Positive Neutral Negative

    Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong positive set-up

    ·         Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin

    ·         Yields: 30Y Bond +.08%  Currencies:  USA$ -0.03%, CAD +0.05%, YEN-0.06%,  BTC/USD +0.94%  Vix: 17.4

    ·         Stocks: FTNT-21%, ABNB-6.7%, DDOG+6.6%, DUOL+26%, CELH+24%,   EPS INTC-2.9% on Trump tweet
    Events: USA: UE claims 830ET; 30Y auction13ET  UK: 25bp cut
    Equity:  Global indices higher on the latest Trump statements. 100% tariff on semis not mfg in USA but exemption for companies planning to move back on shore. AAPL pledged another 100B for USA investment and net effect appears that AAPL can avoid tariffs (I think) which doesnt sell more stuff but can improve margin IF tariffs are avoided. Semis in general are leading and AAPL is leading MAG7. The export controls are still a looming potential semi issue as they have not been lifted. IMO this move is at best a removal of something bad (tariffs) but doesnt increase consumption and given it takes years to build factories is mostly sentiment. INTC is being hit today on a Trump tweet that the CEO should resign due to China ties. It’s a Trump market.  S&P and QQQ are at the top of the daily and weekly expected move hence extended and potential for acceleration but statistically odds favor consolidation or pullback. Large moves by AAPL AVGO NVDA will suck capital from other name which can hold back the bulk of the S&P.  Earnings moves in FTNT, DUOL, CELH, large and names to watch today. LLY weight loss results worse than NVO on latest study and LLY down and NVO higher. 


    SPY 636.4  Resistance 638.4  Support 635 632;  QQQ 571.7 Resistance 575  Support 570 566 565 562;
    Daily Expected Move. SPX(6382-6307);  SPY(636-629); QQQ(572-562);  IWM(222-218)

    Stocks to watch
     AAPL, AMD, NVDA, AMD, NVDA, Speculative GO, ALAB, IONQ, IREN
    Pre-800ET
    Indices
    ETHE, SMH, MSOS, ARKG, ARKK, XME, USO, XLV, KWEB

    S&P500  DDOG, MU, GLW, WBD, AAPL, AMD, ENPH, NVDA, AVGO, FTNT, LLY, ABNB, VST, INTC

    Other DUOL, CELH, GRPN, BROS, NBIS, RDW, FTNT, EXAS, 



    AAPL

    AAPL large move Wed on news with follow through premarket. AAPL is at resistance so question is whether will breakout or retrace. Large option position at 220 which makes it a line in the sand. Above 225, below 215. 

     

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