.

Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend 

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government 

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative

Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong – neutral set-up

·       Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin

·       Yields: 30Y Bond +0.26 Currencies: USA$+0.14%, CAD -0.01%, YEN+0.04%, BTC/USD-0.46% Vix: 18.5

·       Stocks: GIS-2.2% EPS WDAY+9% Activist investor; NVDA-1.1% AMD -1.5% Chinese regulator orders Chinese companies to terminate testing and orders of RTX Pro  6000D chips introduced 2 months ago
Events: USA: FOMC 14ET; Housing data 830ET CDN: BOC rate decision 945ET Eurozone CPI below expectations
Equity: Global indices muted ahead of FOMC rate decision where 25bps cut is expected and market will react to the projected rate cuts with polymarket pricing 56% of 3 cuts in 2025 and bond market pricing 69%. A China regulator is asking/telling companies to terminate orders of the latest NVDA chip intended for China, which is weighing on NVDA and AMD. China and USA are still talking trade with Tiktok decision punted to Dec but with ORCL still a frontrunner. Likely China is using import bans of USA semi either as a trading chip or for strategic reasons. Chinese stocks are broadly higher with a combination of more PBOC liquidity and AI euphoria moving across the Pacific. US$ is slightly higher and metals lower. Fri is Opex and call speculation is uber high in precious metal which raises risk of pullback, especially if Powell is anything less than the divest of doves.  Many of the popular retail meme stocks are weak premarket in the nuclear, crypto, drone spaces, could be derisking ahead of FOMC. Vol is elevated into FOMC which can lead to a pop on a neutral/dovish Powell with SPX call wall at 6700 an upside target. A hawkish Powell can lead to SPX 6500 with SPM  ETF providing support into EOM. Vix expiration at the open can lead to funkiness at the open.

SPY 659.5 Resistance 660 661 664 Support 658.7, QQQ 592.8  Resistance 595 Support 590 588 586

·       Daily Expected Move. SPX(6668-6545), SPY(666-654), QQQ(597-585), IWM(243-234)

Stocks to watch KWEB, WDAY, NFLX, NVDA, AMD, TSLA Speculative BIDU, IONQ, TIGR, HL, IREN 
Pre-800ET
Indices KWEB, UNG, TLT, XBI, UUP, XLU, ARKG, IWM, SLV, GDX, IBIT, SMH, GLD, ARKK, XME, MAGS

S&P500 WDAY, AMD, WBD, NVDA, TSLA, PLTR

Other ROIV, WDAY, BIDU, KC, NTLA, TME, IONQ, PDD, BABA, TIGR, LI, RKLB, HL, AG, RCAT, CDE, QS, CIFR, IREN, OKLO, SBET, JOBY, WBD, SOUN, CLSK, APLD, BHP, SMR, WULF, SOFI

CAT

CAT is IMO an unlikely breakout idea, but the chart indicates potential move higher or rejection at this level. Baird just raised the price target to 540. Call wall 450 is the first target with acceleration potential above. I am skeptical as CAT fundies have been weakening and CAT is tied to global growth; however, a lower US$ will help, and maybe the gazillion $ of data center spending will require more bulldozers and the big move in mining stocks will incentivize companies to increase capex.