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Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend 

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government 

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative

Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong – Neutral set-up

·       Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin

·       Yields: 30Y Bond +.08% Currencies: USA$-0.1%, CAD -0.1%, YEN+.06%, BTC/USD-0.5%, Vix: 18.35

·       Stocks: COST-0.56% EPS Trump executive orders with tariffs on heavy trucks, kitchen cabinets, and pharma not mfg in the USA. Lifting stocks with USA presence e.g. PCAR. If ground broken on a USA site, then no tariffs. Tiktok deal close to agreement
Events: USA: PCE 830ET, Consumer sentiment 10ET CDN: GDP 830ET
Equity: USA indices flat ahead of USA PCE print, Europe higher and China notably lower. Markets pulled back Thurs due to positive USA econ data indicating no need for a Fed rate cut and today’s PCE and 10ET consumer sentiment hence can move yields, US$ and hence equities. ** USA PCE as expected; consumer spending & personal income better than expected. CDN GDP better than expected.  Reaction: equity higher, bonds higher. *** IV is elevated into the PCE data with potential for inline print acting as a catalyst for upside, with caveat SPX > 6600 with 6650 initial resistance. COST earnings were fin,e but stock is -1%. Trump continues to be the main market driver. Executive orders du jour is tariffs on heavy trucks, furniture, kitchen cabinets, and drugs unless the mfgs have broken ground on USA factories. This is boosting companies like PCAR, PFE, MRK and hurting W. USA govt is also talking additional semi support, which is boosting GFS and INTC. MAG7 is led by TSLA (upgrade) AMZN (looking sick) GOOGL. Tiktok deal close to agreement and separation of USA version from ROW may benefit competitors (GOOGL META) but may see short term boost to ORCL and DELL, which are part of the consortium. Bitcoin is up slightly with the PCE print, but has been wobbly as US$ has risen the last few days. China stocks are pulling back with no obvious news with exception of EV companies LI XPEV. USA market cap indices are not indicating a lean but equal weight RSP is underperforming, indicating MAG7 outperformance.

SPY 658.1 Resistance 660 661 663 665 Support 658 655, QQQ 593.8  Resistance 595 596 596.7 600 Support 591 590

·       Daily Expected Move. SPX(6648-6562), SPY(662.4-653.8), QQQ(598.6-588), IWM(242-237)

Stocks to watch AMZN, TSLA, INTC, GFS, PCAR, JD, BABA Speculative LI, IREN, CLSK
Pre-800ET
Indices UNG, ARKK, XLV, GDX, XLF, XLY, GLD, TLT, KWEB, IBIT, SLV, US$

S&P500 PCAR, INTC, TXN, LLY, MRK, APP, KVUE, PFE, DELL, WBD, SMCI, AAPL

Other GFS, LI, XPEV, CIFR, CLSK, IREN, JD, IONQ, BABA

TSLA

TSLA is the most popular toy for the hedge funds trading weekly options. Above 430 positioning indicates resistance at 435, and above 435 call positioning indicates 460-500 upside driven by calls. Pullback > 425 can be buy the dip opportunity. Expected move for today is +/- 8.2 or 1.9%.