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Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend 

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government 

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative

Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong – Neutral set-up

·         Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin

·         Yields: 30Y Bond +.03%  Currencies:  USA$-0.13%, CAD -0.05%, YEN+.45%,  BTC/USD-1.24%  Vix: 17.95

·         Stocks: MTN-2.3%, UNFI+4.6%  EPS USA govt shutdown potential by Oct 1
Events: USA: JOLTS 10ET; CB Consumer confidence 10ET; Trump 10% softwood lumber tariff, 100% on foreign made movies China: Slight improvement in mfg PMI but still in contraction
Equity: USA indices are slightly weaker premarket with media buzzing over the annual govt shutdown threat. JOLTs job data today at 10ET may be market moving with the fixation on the USA job market. ADP private survey will be released Wed but a govt shutdown will delay the highly flawed but deemed important non-farm payroll which may keep volatility elevated due to uncertainty. This is the last day of the quarter which means the JPM structured ETF will be rolling a large position and can lead to some volatility. It also means that some rebalancing can occur today and next week which may be from equity to fixed income or within equity from leaders to laggards. Many S&P companies are entering buyback blackout due to upcoming earnings which can reduce liquidity and increase volatility. MAG7 are muted with NVDA, AVGO leading and TSLA lagging ahead of sales data. Speculative names some weakness with bitcoin, quantum, nuclear names pulling back. Precious metals which have been on fire are pulling back which may be end of month related or just profit taking.  OpenAI announcing ETSY and SHOP ability to buy from Chatgpt lifted those names and weighed on GOOGL. China data indicates mfg improving but still  in contraction but premarket buyers of BABA are continuing. China stock market will be closed Oct1-7 due to golden week so a major participant will be absent.

SPY 662.7 Resistance 663.8 665 Support 662 660, QQQ 598.3  Resistance 660 603  Support 597 596 595 594

·         Daily Expected Move. SPX(6690-6632),  SPY(666.6-660.8), QQQ(603-594),  IWM(243-240)

Stocks to watch NVDA, AVGO, TSLA Speculative WOLF, UUUU
Pre-800ET
Indices KWEB, UNG, MSOS, SLV, IBIT, GDX, ARKK, XLE, XME, ETHE, GLD, IWM, XLV

S&P500  FCX, INTC

Other WOLF, CRH, BILI, QS, CRCL, LI, XPEV, FCX, BABA, UUUU, AG, SMR, IONQ, RGTI, IREN, MARA, BMNR, QBTS, RIOT

PYPL

PYPL popped on news of a deal with Blue Owl which off loads PYPL credit risk. Option volume spiked with longer dated (both Oct 7 and Jan/Mar) calls 70-73. Can consider long > 70 with target 75 which corresponds to the largest open interest in the Oct17 expiration with an expected move of +/-4.5. Note PYPL has been an underperformer for years and is a volatile stock. Recent issue in Germany has been resolved which led to some recent weakness in the stock.