.

Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend 

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government 

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative

Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong – Positive set-up

·       Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin

·       Yields: 30Y Bond -0.11% Currencies: USA$ +0.11%, CAD -0.01%, YEN-0.18%, BTC/USD-01.8% Vix: 19.7

·       Stocks: FAST -3.8% EPS
Events: USA: Trump tweet caused pullback Fri with a threat of 100% China tariff Nov 1 and then weekend tweet led to the bounce. China requirement for rare earth export licenses, mirroring USA semi export licenses is the root. Fri, rare earth-related companies were all bid. Bessent still talking tough re: China and trying to solicit other countries to join. Meanwhile, China’s exports rose 8% in Sept but fell 28% to USA.
Equity: Global indices bounced after Fri drop which took USA indices below the weekly expected move. Catalyst for drop was Trump’s threat of 100% China tariff Nov 1, and the bounce caused by a weekend Trump tweet.  The AI semi names and metals are leading the bounce. JPM Dimon is pledging to invest $1.5T over a decade and mentioning AI, critical metals, and quantum, which is fuel for buying a basket of speculative mining companies (CRML USAR UAMY UUUU MP). Gold and silver continue to be squeezed. China stocks which were hit Fri are bouncing premarket. MAG7 are led by NVDA and TSLA and semis led by MU, AMD and AVGO as buy the dippers or short covering, or perhaps lowered concern that China will not be buyers or maybe monkeys are programmed to buy on Mondays:) . Premarket bounce has lifted indices above the daily expected move based on Fri close, which can lead to a trend higher or alternatively pullback (if bounce is just short covering). SPX 0DTE major levels are 6675 and 6500 are potential targets intraday. USA bond market is closed today, as is the Canadian equity market. As noted last week, vol control funds are sellers as realized volatility rises and this applies to moves in either direction, ergo a large move higher will be met with selling. CTAs are trend followers and will be sellers if SPX continues lower, with < 6500 a level that may be met with elevated selling

SPY 660 Resistance 662 666 Support 655, QQQ 598.5 Resistance 600 606 Support 597 595 590
Daily Expected Move. SPX(6608-6496), SPY(659-647), QQQ(599-580),  IWM(241-235)

Stocks to watch NVDA, TSLA, MU, AVGO, FAST Speculative CRML, USAR, BE, UAMY, TEM
Pre-800ET
Indices XME, KWEB, ARKF, GDX, QTUM, SLV, NUKZ, MSOS, ARKK, IBIT, UNG, TLT, XLP

S&P500 MU, AMD, NVDA, SMCI, HOOD, PLTR, TSLA, ORCL, AAPL, COIN, AMZN, PYPL

Other CRML, USAR, BE, UAMY, UUUU, MP, UEC, SMR, OKLO, EOSE, CDE, RKLB, IREN, APLD, QUBT, TEM

SPY

SPY has bounced premarket above the daily expected move on what is either short covering or relief following the Trump tweet that China situation will be resolved. SPY 660 is a key level and can be used as a pivot level with long above and caution below. Upside targets are 20ema (662.8) and 666. Downside targets 655 (option position) 652 50sma.