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Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend 

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government 

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative

Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong – Neutral set-up

·       Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin

·       Yields: 30Y Bond +0.13% Currencies: USA$ -0.06%, CAD -0.02%, YEN+0.51%, BTC/USD-0.32% Vix:18.0

·       Stocks: UNH+3.5%; PYPL+14.5%; UPS+9.6%, CFLT+9%, SHW+5%, SOFI+3.3%; GLW-5.5%, DHI-5% EPS BAM and CCJ US govt funding to build nuclear reactors; QRVO, SWKS merger
Events:USA: USA housing price data
Equity: Global indices flattish after Monday’s USA squeeze led by MAGS post enthusiasm for the potential for an actual trade agreement with China or alternatively a squeeze of the weekend shorts. QQQ led the bounce and is already at the weekly expected move ahead of MAGS earnings and FOMC meeting, hence extended. Earnings: PYPL 2x move with inline earnings but… OpenAI deal; UPS 2x move as laggard beat; DHI 1x move lower as housing market weak; RCL >1x move lower on EPS miss; GLW lower and CLS higher as datacenter revenue strong; SOFI modestly higher on strong earnings. BAM/CCJ are latest beneficiary of USA govt investment to build nuclear reactors and taking a position in potential IPO. MAGS led by TSLA, AMZN, NVDA, GOOGL, with TSLA option volume massive Mon and AMZN announcing 14k job cuts ahead of earnings. GOOGL is at the top of the weekly expected move ahead of earnings. Gold and silver are continuing to unwind, taking miners lower. SPX 0DTE has large positions at 6895 and 6840, which set targets for 0DTE trading algos that will likely hit one. Correlation is low, so expect outsized moves in individual names at the expense of the rest as dispersion trade reigns supreme. Speculative sectors leading premarket are quantum and nuclear with the latter benefiting from the BAM/CCJ news and the former clinging to the notion that USA will invest in one of tiny companies. Wed is a big day with FOMC and several MAGS reporting so strap on seat belts:)

SPY 686 Resistance 688  690 Support 685 682, QQQ 629.4 Resistance 630 632 Support 627 625 620
Daily Expected Move. SPX(6907-6843), SPY(688-682), QQQ(632-624),  IWM(252-248)

Stocks to watch PYPL, CCJ, AMZN, TSLA, CCJ Speculative WULF, SMR, GLXY, CIFR
Indices QTUM, IYT, MAGS, ARKQ, XLV, NUKZ, QQQ, UNG, GDX, ETHE, GLD, /CL, KWEB, SLV, IBIT

S&P500 PYPL, UPS, SWKS, SHW, UNH, REGN, FDX, XYL, CNC, ADBE, CRWD, FFIV, ARE, RCL, GLW, DHI, CCL, NCHL, NEM

Other CCJ, WULF, UEC, UUUU, WRD, SOFI, SMR, QUBT, QBTS, GLXY, CIFR, IRENGlobal Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong – Neutral set-up

·       Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin

·       Yields: 30Y Bond -0.16% Currencies: USA$ +0.2%, CAD -0.00% YEN-0.05%, BTC/USD-0.5, Vix:18.5

·       Stocks: TER+17%, STX+6.2%, VZ+3.8%, LRN-43%, VRNS-29%, FI-32%, AVTR-16.6%, MDLZ-5.3%, ENPH-10.5%  EPS
Events:USA: FOMC 14:00;
Equity: USA indices are mildly positive with leadership from QQQ and semis led by NVDA.  NVDA had an outsized move Tues and continued overnight with a flood of call buyers following a flurry of agreements announced Tues and most importantly a meeting with Trump where Jensen provided a Blackwell chip and Trump said he would discuss with XI. Currently USA has export controls preventing shipment of advanced chips to China and China is encouraging companies to use China built technology.  USA semi industry is very dependent on China revenue and for now the market seems to be pricing removal of the export controls. US security types do not want a removal of export controls and view AI as the hegominic battlefield so IMO it’s not obvious what will be agreed to when XI and Trump meet. Semi canoe is fully loaded with bullish calls so risk is a repeat of the previous trade discussions where China buys some beans and USA kicks the tariff can for 3m. Re: tariffs the supreme court will be entertaining the legality of the tariffs, grab some popcorn. FOMC is reporting today and rates will be cut but big question is the ending of QT. There is alot of chatter about cracks forming in financial markets and a need for Fed to act given the unprecedented debt in the system. MAGS earnings released after the close will also be significant with questions regarding return on the massive spending and plans to continue to spend the focus. SPY, QQQ are at the upper weekly expected move and option positioning is skewed to calls and of course, NVDA is off the charts. So positioning for supportive FED, positive China deal, positive earnings and guidance i.e. blow-off top and very little positioning for something not unfolding as bulls desire. Highly leveraged markets with one side of the canoe overloaded can get interesting.

SPY 688.6  Resistance 690 692 Support 687 685 682  QQQ 635  Resistance 640  Support 635 630 625
Daily Expected Move. SPX(6936-6845)  SPY(692-682) QQQ(640-625)  IWM(252-245)

Stocks to watch NVDA, TER, MU, ENPH, FI  Speculative BE, JOBY,
Indices SLV, GDX, ARKQ, SMH, GLD, ARKX, KWEB, QTUM, ARKK, XLK, UNG, XLF, XLP, ETHE, IBIT, XLRE

S&P500 CNC, MU, VZ, NVDA, SMCI, AMD, T, TSLA,  FI, KHC

Other BE, LCID, NESR, JOBY, IONQ, GSK, BABA, ENPH, ETSY, WULF, IREN

NVDA

NVDA blasted higher on the back of heavy call buying post a flurry of deals/partnerships announced by Jensen Tues and most importantly after Jensen met with Trump and gave him a Blackwell. Market is now trading as if USA will end export controls AND China will reverse it’s policy regarding using USA chips. Heavy call positioning in this week’s 205, 208 calls with short calls at 210. While above 208 look for 210 and should 210 break, potential for a squeeze higher. However since these are short term options and since there are many leveraged NVDA ETFs, the unwind in NVDA could be brutal if XI Trump talks go the way of the last few trade discussions. One should consider that there are many in USA govt that think China is a competitor and needs to be held back. This is where options can allow one to protect or speculate on more upside. China is a significant customer so removal of export controls is positive for NVDA, AMD, MU etc which is what the market is trading on IMO.