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 Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend 

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government 

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative

Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong – Slight negative set-up

·       Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin

·       Yields: 30Y Bond -0.29% Currencies: USA$ -0.01%, CAD -0.16%, YEN-0.71%, BTC/USD-0.5%  Vix:18.6

·       Stocks: GOOGL+8.4%, NOW+2.9%, LLY+3.2%, GH+23%, AAP+19.6%, INSM+10%, MSFT-2%, META-9%, CMG-16%, MRK-2.8%, SBUX-3.3%, BAX-10%, CVNA-8%, RBLX-5% EPS
Events:EUR: Rate decision, expect no change
Equity: Global indices ex-japan are lower post FOMC, MAGS earnings and China tariff meeting. FOMC is divided on need for rate cuts and Powell reduced Dec rate cut expectations. FED will stop QT in Dec and there is chatter that FED will need to add liquidity as some cracks are forming. China-USA trade talks were generally a can kicking exercise with China buying soybeans again, a reduction in USA tariffs by 10% and a 1y delay in critical metals export restrictions. The critical metal spec companies are higher in reaction. MAGS earnings reactions are mixed with GOOGL moving higher than the expected move, META moving lower than the expected move and MSFT moving lower. Issue with META is an increase in spending and outpacing revenue. MSFT beat expectations but discussed higher capex. GOOGL revenue growth is deemed to be outperforming capex. In theory the insatiable datacenter building is positive for semis however NVDA AMD are lower potentially since the QQQ is lower or it’s not clear (to me) that there is any change to the status quo on China visa vis export controls. CMG and SBUX lower so maybe consumers not buying enough overpriced food but QSR higher so Tim Hortons working:) Some healthcare names LLY, CAH, GH higher lifting the XLV. NVO buying MSTR lifting MSTR. NOW higher with good earnings and a 5:1 stock split, may be worth a look. The macro reaction to the FOMC is yields higher and US$ higher. The move in the US$ is negative for foreign equities and notable is KWEB -1.9% post the XI-Trump meeting.  SPX 6900 is the bull/bear level and SPX is currently below. Positioning in indices and many single stocks has been heavily tilted to calls and should stocks fail to rise, the expiration of out of the money calls will be a negative weight. Also, the heavy retail speculation in leveraged ETFs  will increase volatility in both directions.

SPY 685.4 Resistance 687 690 692 Support 685 683, QQQ 633.9  Resistance 637 640 Support 631 630 627
Daily Expected Move. SPX(6932-6849), SPY(692-683), QQQ(644-627),  IWM(250-243)

Stocks to watch GOOGL, NOW, META, MSFT, CMG, SBUX Speculative CVNA, MTSR, CRML
Indices SLV, GDX, GLD, XBI, XLV, ARKG, UNG, US$, KWEB, IBIT, XLY, /CL, TLT, ETHE, MAGS

S&P500 GOOGL, FMC, CMG, META, MSFT, FI

Other MTSR, CRML, USAR, MP, CLF, STLA, OKLO, NVO, JD, BABA

AMZN

AMZN is reporting after the close and stock has been flat on the year. Expected move is +/-14. IV is 131% for this week’s options, which means that calendars and diagonals are suitable option strategies. Option skew is tilted to calls with call wall 250 and put wall 200. Above 250 potential for a squeeze. Market will be focused on Capex spending plans and whether revenue growth is greater than capex. AMZN just announced layoffs which is notable.