.

Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend 

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government 

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative

Market Setup- Pre-730ET

Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong – Neutral set-up

·       Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin

·       Yields: 30Y Bond +0.03% Currencies: USA$ +0.3%, CAD -0.01%, YEN-0.3%, BTC/USD-0.76%, Vix: 17.6

·       Stocks: STZ+3.3%, JHX+11%, AEHR-19.8% EPS ICE+3.7% Investment in Polymarket IBM+4% integrating Anthropic Claude MU+ 2.7% upgrade; TMQ+220% Copper miner USA investing; IREN+8% reports cloud service contracts for NVDA Blackwell AMD+4% Upgrade to $200 from DB LOL!;  DLTR-4% downgrade
Events: USA: USA 10% investment in Alaska copper miner TMQ CDN: PMI 830Et
Equity: USA indices mildly higher premarket with US$ higher and long yields higher, which is typically negative for equity. Vix up, S&P up is continuing indicating longer dated hedges being added. Realized volatility is as low as it gets and well below implied, as short-term vol is sold and longer-term vol bought (long puts). S&P 1m correlation < 8% is associated with previous S&P peaks and reflects names moving independently, with news driving individual names (e.g., AMD). A vol spike is the risk as the short term vol sellers will be run over, and the risk is in either direction. MAGS are subdued with NVDA leading and TSLA lagging. GOOGL, META, MSFT had strong bids Monday and have been pressured by notion OpenAi is a threat, watch. IBM higher on Anthropic deal; IREN on cloud contracts; TMQ lifted massively as USA took a 10% position; MU and AMD higher as analysts chase price higher. The speculative names are continuing to be bid with AI data center, Quantum, and drones higher premarket. Meanwhile, the real economy names are weakening, especially companies serving the lower part of the K, for example, DLTR, which was downgraded to day or XRT. Private credit is a growing concern and reflected in AFRM, SOFI, KKR, and potentially into regional banks. So IMO there is the meme sectors like AI, drones, space, quantum, precious metals and crypto which are not dependent on the consumer and then there is the traditional names which are showing signs of weakness. As long as SPX >4700 it can continue.

SPY 672 Resistance 672 672.5 675 Support 671 670 669  QQQ 608.4  Resistance 608 610  Support 606 605
Daily Expected Move. SPX(6768-6712)  SPY(674-669) QQQ(611-604)  IWM(248-245)

Stocks to watch IBM, AMD, MU, NVDA, TSLA Speculative ORBS, IREN, OSCR, ACHR
Pre-800ET
Indices UNG, QTUM, SMH, UUP, XLU, XLK, MSOS, IBIT, ETHE, EFA, GDX

S&P500 IBM, AMD, MU, PYPL, F 

Other ORBS, IREN, OSCR, QBTS, QUBT, PATH, RGTI, SBSW, RCAT, CLSK, SOFI, PYPL, BMNR, ONDS, CRWV, ACHR, F 

GOOGL

GOOGL is one of the better-performing MAGS. Big move higher Mon and small pullback premarket. Option market is positioning for higher levels with large positions building at 280 and 300. 250 is a level to consider long with 255 the first resistance level. Alternatively, one can look for a retest of the breakout level. Caveat is market is extended in general, so higher risk-taking on new long positions.