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Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend 

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government 

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative

Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong – slight negative set-up

·       Commodities: Gold, Silver, Copper, Palladium, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Bitcoin

·       Yields: 30Y Bond -0.19% Currencies: USA$ +0.15% CAD -0.03% YEN -0.65%  BTC/USD+1.4% Vix:20.15

·       Events:USA: NVDA earnings after close

·       Stock News: AXON+16%, HSBC+5%, TJX 0%, CIRCL+17%, FSLR-16.5%, MELI-5%, WDAY-9.5%, LOW-3.6%, SHOO-1.7%     Earnings  

·       Equity: USA indices higher premarket with a clear risk-on vibe ahead of NVDA earnings. IWM is leading, and bitcoin, AI winners and losers are both higher, which feels like short covering. SPY is just below 690, which is a key level that can act as resistance or a breakout level. QQQ 610 is similar. MAGS are higher, with the exception of AAPL, which seems to be the defensive one that moves inversely to the herd. NVDA and AI semi bros are higher premarket. The planet expects NVDA to beat, and it’s common for NVDA to run into the print and swoon in subsequent days. CRM and SNOW are reporting and will be critical for the software sector sentiment, which is currently very poor. The software names have very high IV and puts are well bid, so there is potential for a recovery bounce as IV falls if guidance is inline to better. WDAY lower is not helping with weaker than expected guidance. Metals are higher as momentum continues to be strong. Defense higher as Trump SOTU talked about military spending focus. AXON higher on earnings as demand for Tasers and body cameras in a bull market. CRCL is higher on earnings, and it looks like shorts are getting squeezed which can squeeze the beaten down crypto names which have been in a death spiral. Lithium is hot again maybe because the entire periodic table is hot but SGML, ALB are higher despite LI being a common element. SPX is well supported while > 6900 with likely resistance at 6925, 6975 from 0DTE. General positioning is puts well bid compared to calls 

·       with general unwillingness to buy the right tail but given the positioning, a negative catalyst can lead to a sharp drawdown so one can keep an open mind.  NVDA, CRM, SNOW may be catalysts, we will see.

·       Daily Expected Move. SPX(6932-6848), SPY(692-683), QQQ(614-602),  IWM(266-261)

Stocks to watch NVDA, MU, AXON, ALB, AAPL, LOW, HPQ, FSLR  Speculative SGML, AXTI, CRCL  
Indices ETHE, SLV, IBIT, GDX, ARKF, XME, ARKK, SMH, UNG, TLT, XLP, KWEB

S&P500 AXON, ALB, STX, HOOD, ENPH, WDC, FCX, ORCL, GNRC, GLW, FSLR, GDDY, HPQ, FOXA, LOW, FOX, ALGN, MOS Other CRCL, SGML, AXTI, BMNR, CRML, RIOT, MSTR, USAR, SOFI, CLSK, HL, ODD, DRVN, HLN, NVO, TEM Market Setup- Pre-730ET

Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong – neutral  set-up

·       Commodities: Gold, Silver, Copper,  Palladium, Oil, natgas, AGGS,  Bitcoin

·       Yields: 30Y Bond +0.0%  Currencies:  USA$ +0.01% CAD -0.04% YEN +0.25%  BTC/USD-1.4%  Vix:19.45

·       Events:USA: UE claims 830ET

·       Stock News:NVDA+1%, SNOW+1.5%, TD+0.8%, INTU+0.3%, VST+1.5%, SJM+7.8%, NTNX+19%, IONQ+14%, CRM-3%, SNPS-3.5%, NU-4%, BIDU-3.3% Earnings 

·       Equity: USA indices flat premarket with IWM leading. Wed there was a hard rotation with the lagging Nasi software names surging and NVDA running into the earnings print. NVDA exceeded expectations and stock is higher but has failed to hold the 200 call wall. NVDA has often pulled back post earnings so should watch 195 level. CRM and SNOW reported and both beat expectations. CRM lower on mixed guidance, but has been rising premarket.  SNOW is also rising premarket. Collectively, signs that sentiment that software is dead and may lead to a continuation of the rotation. MAGS are led by NVDA with remainder slightly lower after big moves Wed. The memory group is bid with MU, SNDK higher so the squeeze may be continuing but there is alot of volatility. Oil lower with media suggesting Iran cooling, but 2 carrier battle groups say it’s not over yet. Metals pulling back premarket after big moves Wed. China names are significantly weaker with no obvious news aside from BIDU weak earnings due to lower advertising revenue and Capex. Quantum names are higher following IONQ earnings. Lots of shorts in quantum names so potential for continuation. NTNX also higher post earnings with some AI deal with AMD – can watch in RTH. SPX overhead positive gamma is done so there is now potential for the long awaited upside breakout with caveat that the downside still remains with 6900 the key support level to hold.

Stocks to watch NVDA, SNOW, NFLX, CRM, SNPS, AMD, BIDU  Speculative NTNX, CELH, IONQ
Indices GLD, QTUM, ARKG, SMH, IWM, XLI, UNG, KWEB, /CL, SLV, IBIT, XLE, ETHE, XLC, IGV, GDX

S&P500 SJM, WDC, TYL, TER, BLDR, VST, NDAQ, XEL, PSKY, APA,  SNPS, TFX, MOS, CRM, TECH, VTRS, ALB, AMD, PFG, FCX
Other NTNX, IONQ, CELH, RGTI, QBTS, SNOW,  EOSE, ARRY, AI, PRCT, VIR, NU, BABA, BIDU, JD, AG, BP

MSFT

MSFT is down 30% from the highs as capex spending, OpenAI relationship and general disdain for software has weighed on the stock. 400 is the large strike and can be used as the key pivot level. 410 and 420 are upside targets and above 420 can squeeze.  Caveat that MSFT is in a downtrend and potential resistance 20ema 410, prior high 420. Potential for software to get a bid if there is a rotation back to tech or semis to software as the popular hedgefund trade is long semi and short software. Need to be cautious that the bounce may be just a short squeeze.