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Date: Mar 30 2026

Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend 

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing ** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government 

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative

Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong – neutral set-up

·       Commodities: Gold, Silver, Copper, Palladium, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Bitcoin

·       Yields: 30Y Bond +0.75%, Currencies: USA$+0.09%, CAD -0.23%, YEN +0.45%, BTC/USD+2.4% Vix:27.45

·       Events:USA: Powell and Williams speaking; Iran war escalated with Houthis trying to close the Red Sea, but no USA invasion over the weekend, so small bounce premarket
Stock News: FRMI-7.8%, SGML+18.5% Earnings
Equity: Global indices sold down Sunday night but are bouncing premarket. Iran war heat increased over the weekend with Houthi now active at the Red Sea/Suez Canal. The USA did not send in ground troops over the weekend, which is likely leading to a lift on short covering and put decay. Trump is tweeting “great progress” in Iran talks, but is striking Iran’s infrastructure. Iran struck Aluminum factories, which is leading to a pop in AA and CENX. Interesting set-up with oil, bonds, US$, Gold, and equity higher, which is a change from the pattern over the last few weeks and will likely change once the market opens. Dead cat bounce candidates: PANW and security stocks, which sold off on the latest Claude release but PANW CEO bought $2M shares Friday; META, which sold down on CA lawsuit loss and raised class action lawsuit concern; semis with memory (MU, SNDK) NVDA, AMD all bouncing. So far, bounces are being met with sells, so take care. Metals are also bouncing with gold continuing Fri bounce, but all the metals are higher despite US$ not relenting. Energy names are still strong premarket but are technically extended with Brent $107.5.  The space stocks (ASTS RKLB) are bid with interest strong ahead of the expected SpaceX IPO.  SPX 6475 is a high level corresponding to the JPM put position which will be rolled Tues. Above 6400, one can consider a target 6475-6500 and trade with a butterfly trade either 0 or 1 DTE. There are +30k 4675 puts rolling Tues and if the price can move above it will provide the fuel for a non-intuitive move higher despite the geopolitical risk and have twitter complaining about the PPT.   Below 6400 there is the potential for a nasty increase in volatility. Note that if market rallies today and tomorrow with WTI > $100 risk of reversal post roll.

Stock NVDA, CTVA, CTRA, GLD, CRWD, PANW, MSFT, META  Speculative VG, CRCL, MSTR
Indices ETHE, IBIT, /CL, XME, XLE, GDX, ARKX, XLK, TLT, SMH, IGV, IWM, SPY, QQQ, UNG

S&P500 PANW, CRWD, LITE, COIN, SNDK, HOOD, MU, FCX, APA, XOM, DVN, CVX, META, SYY, IQV, SWK, PODD, TYL, NVR, STLD, VTR, DOV
Other AA, RACE, RIO, EQNR, CRCL, ASX, IREN, VG, ASTS, IONQ, HL, NVO, TEVA, PUK

PANW

PANW and security stocks sold off for the second time with Claude latest release having security features which can make software more secure to hacking. Software in general is under distribution and PANW is an idea contrary to the trend. PANW has a large put position at 140 which may act as  support and corresponds to prior lows. The CEO bought $2M of stock Fri and there are 350M of darkpool traded at 147.02 so potential for PANW to be a dead cat bounce idea, Put wall 150 is another level to watch with target 160-170. Could consider a short put spread as a way to trade a long with caveat that a move below 140 is an indication that PANW is taking the next step lower.