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Swing Trade Idea – January 21, 2022

Market Setup 

•Global markets are generally weak with USA red, Europe red, Japan red, Hong Kong red, China green, Asia red

•Yields falling in premarket and curve flattening – usually supportive to growth

•US dollar lower compared to Euro which hints that fear is not high;

•News: USA-Ukraine meme du jour; Lagarde speaking; UK retail sales miss; CDN Retail sales 830ET

•Stocks: NFLX forecast a sharp slowdown in sub growth [ROKU DIS sympathy]; PTON cut production due to demand

•Indices: USA indices are pulling back premarket but still above overnight lows. Nasdaq is the weakest index weighed down by NFLX. OPEX today will keep volatility high and potentially large moves at the close. Markets are oversold but negative gamma means selling will lead to selling  Major SPX levels which act as support and resistance: 4400 4425 4475 4500. Would look for support at the 200sma and the gamma levels.

VIX futures term structure is close to inversion which is high risk. With FED and earnings next week, vol can stay elevated. VIX corresponds to SPX move of +/-1.6%

•Sectors: Leading: TLT, YEN, China Internet  Lagging: Bitcoin, Energy, Tech

Stocks to watch: MSFT TLT NFLX YEN  TSLA Spec Names: SIG TCOM SI QFIN LCID ARKK

Movers

Earnings ALLY ASB CSX HBAN ISRG NFLX PPG

Indices TLT yen LIT KWEB Euro ITB /BTC ICLN XPH XLE EWZ FDN QQQ ARKF XOP JETS faangmt XLK XLB

S&P500 UA AAL LUMN D SO EXC LLY LIN NFLX ISRG ECL DIS DVN NVDA VIAC F OXY DISCA FCX HAL HBAN MRO OTIS EOG

Movers PTON AMBP UAA LCI NVO NET BYND LLY NFLX CPE PLTR CVX HOOD LOGI TSLA GME AAPL CVNA

WSB SENS GOEV SPCE SDC NET RIOT HUT ANY DLPN F NVDA RIVN SKLZ OCGN ROOT SPOT RBLX AMD SNDL

Trade Idea TLT

Market weakness and large short interest is giving TLT a bid.  Volume resistance at 143 but little resistance above 143.5.  Bonds are being shorted so possibility of a short  squeeze.