.

Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend 

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government 

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Neutral global set-up

·       Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin

·       Yields: 30Y Bond -.24% Currencies: USA$ -.53%, CAD +.43%, YEN-.18%, BTC/USD-2.1%,  Vix: 24.6

·       News: USA: NFIB 100.7 vs 100.9; JOLTS 10ET 

·       Stocks: ORCL -1%, DKS-3%, KSS-15%, FERG-6%, CIEN+7%, UNFI+4.5% EPS DAL-7.7% forecast cut
Overview: SPY 561.3 Expected move 8 Resistance 563.8 565 568.8   Support 560 559.2 555; QQQ 473.8 Expected move 8.5 Resistance 475 480 481.3 485 Support 470 465 464. Global indices generally green premarket with Euro higher on hope that Germans can increase spending to buy weapons. USA indices are marginally green and led by small caps. MAG7 are flattish ex-TSLA which is higher and AAPL which is lower. Lower US$ is giving a boost to metals. China stocks are leading and China was upgraded by Citi who also downgraded USA stocks. S&P500 remains in caution zone with Vix futures inverted and positioning put heavy. SPX bounced off the large JPM put position at 5565 which is a reference level and remains in place until Mar31. Current positioning suggests the SPX remaining above 5550 into end of month. IV is elevated into Wed CPI with JOLTS 10ET today potential market mover but not significant. IMO tariff uncertainty, European spending plans and Japan rate decisions remain major unknown catalysts. ORCL lower on EPS miss but was bullish on future. DAL hit on a major guidance but LUV and UAL are higher so not affecting the entire industry. Telecom has been outperforming but VZ, T, TMUS are being hit today so run may be over.

Expected Move  SPX (5694-5534) SPY (568.8-552.6) QQQ (481.3-464) IWM (204-197)

Stocks to watch BABA, FCX, NEM, SLV, GLD, DAL, ORCL, KSS, AAPL  Speculative XPEV, RKT
Pre-800ET
Indices KWEB, IBIT, FXI, UNG, SLV, ETHE, GDX, ARKF, IWM, XLE, US$ 

S&P500 LUV, GEHC, UAL, STLD, FCX, NEM, NOW, TER, VZ, T, DAL, DIS, ORCL, UBER, ABNB, EXPE, WMT, TMUS, MMM
Other HSAI, XPEV, BZ, KC, BILI, VNET, LI, BEKE, BABA, COIN, AU,   ARVN, ASAN, KSS, RKT, VKTX, RKLB, VIK, RDDT

Trade Idea: BABA

China stocks are outperforming USA stocks. BABA is one of the top China names with AI announcements helping. Today might not be the ideal buy point but momentum traders may use the 5ema as a support for a long. Alternatively, look for a dip like Monday to enter with the 20ema as support.  There are negative divergences in the MACD/RSI so stock is consolidating in a range and needs to move above 145 to validate the next move higher.